Wafer capacity, utilisation and shipments
Fab capacity by node, the spending lag and the cycle.
By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.
On this subject: wafer capacity, utilisation and shipments.Updated 4 November 2026
Part of technology company financial models, with the models, labs and guides around it.
What it does
The volume side of a foundry. Capacity is counted in wafers a year by node group, in 12-inch equivalents, and grows only as capital is spent: the spending of one year, divided by the capital cost of a thousand wafers a year of capacity at that node, becomes capacity once the tools are installed and qualified, usually a year later. Utilisation, wafers shipped over capacity, is where the cycle shows: each node has a normal level and a sensitivity to the swing, mature fabs feeling a downturn first and hardest. Wafers shipped are capacity times utilisation, and drive revenue and variable cost.
Where it lives
The same schedule in each model that carries it, with the rows to open. Open a model in the browser, go to the sheet, and click the lines.
- Assumptions, row 7: Time from capital spending to wafers out
- Assumptions, row 16: Maintenance and technology spending
- Assumptions, rows 27–33: Node group, Capacity, FY0A, Utilisation, FY0A, Normal utilisation, forecast…
- Scenarios, rows 8–11: Utilisation swing, base, Utilisation swing, bear, Utilisation swing, bull, Utilisation swing, selected case
- Scenarios, rows 20–23: Capacity spending, base, % of plan, Capacity spending, bear, % of plan, Capacity spending, bull, % of plan, Capacity spending, selected case, % of plan
- Scenarios, rows 26–28: Advanced: capacity spending plan, Mainstream: capacity spending plan, Mature: capacity spending plan
- Capacity, rows 6–10: Advanced: capital cost of the capacity added, Advanced: capacity added, Advanced: capacity, Advanced: utilisation…
- Capacity, rows 13–17: Mainstream: capital cost of the capacity added, Mainstream: capacity added, Mainstream: capacity, Mainstream: utilisation…
- Capacity, rows 20–24: Mature: capital cost of the capacity added, Mature: capacity added, Mature: capacity, Mature: utilisation…
- Capacity, rows 27–32: Capacity added, Capacity, Wafers shipped, Utilisation, blended…
- Capex, rows 8–14: Advanced: capacity spending, Mainstream: capacity spending, Mature: capacity spending, Maintenance and technology spending…
What a reviewer looks for
- Capacity that arrives the year the money is spent.
- Utilisation above 100%, so the forecast sells wafers no fab can make.
- One utilisation for every node, when mature fabs empty first in a downturn.
Learn it, then build it
Vocabulary: Utilisation, CapEx.