Fed Decision in September?
Resolves 16 Sept 2026
53%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase53%
- No change48%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease0%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
25 bps increase, 30 days
+14 pts
What the crowd is pricing.
“What do you expect the Fed to do?” has a right answer, and it is a number with a date on it. These are the open contracts on central bank decisions, yields, oil, listings and takeovers, each with the outcome the crowd rates most likely, the full distribution, and where that probability was a month ago. Say the number, then say why you agree or not.
Rates
Where the crowd puts the next central bank move. The discount rate in every DCF, the cost of debt in every LBO, and the first macro question in a markets interview.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
93%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)93%
- 1 (25 bps)6%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)0%
- 4 (100 bps)0%
0 (0 bps), 30 days
+7 pts
Fed Decision in October?
Resolves 28 Oct 2026
68%No change
- No change68%
- 25 bps increase31%
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
No change, 30 days
+0 pts
Markets
What the crowd expects of yields, oil and the index. The backdrop for "tell me about the market" and for any pitch that has a macro leg.
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Resolves 1 Oct 2026
88%↓ $95
- ↓ $9588%
- ↓ $9067%
- ↑ $10059%
- ↓ $8538%
Anthropic IPO by __?
Resolves 1 Jul 2027
87%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 202687%
- December 15, 202686%
- November 30, 202684%
- November 15, 202679%
December 31, 2026, 30 days
+4 pts
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Resolves 1 Jan 2027
12%December 31
- December 3112%
- September 301%
December 31, 30 days
-1 pts
Deals
Which listings, takeovers and market-cap races the crowd is pricing. The IPO and M&A pipeline as a set of probabilities rather than a rumour.
Largest Company end of September?
Resolves 30 Sept 2026
97%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA97%
- Apple2%
- Alphabet1%
- Tesla0%
- Saudi Aramco0%
NVIDIA, 30 days
+15 pts
IPOs before 2027?
Resolves 1 Jan 2027
89%Anthropic
- Anthropic89%
- Discord14%
- Remote11%
- Ramp10%
Anthropic, 30 days
+7 pts
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Resolves 1 Jan 2027
38%MGM Resorts
- MGM Resorts38%
- PayPal18%
- Brown-Forman14%
- Snapchat14%
MGM Resorts, 30 days
+2 pts
How to use a number like this in the room
State it with its date. “The market has no change at the September meeting at roughly even odds” is an answer. “I think they will hold” is an opinion the interviewer will test.
Take a side. The probability is the consensus. The interview is about whether you can argue for or against it in two sentences: the last inflation print, the labour data, what the Chair said.
Connect it to the job. A 25 bps move changes the discount rate in a DCF, the coupon on a leveraged loan, and the multiple a sponsor can pay. Say which one your seat cares about.
The odds, every week, with what moved them
One email a week on where the crowd moved on rates, oil and the deal pipeline, and the one line to have ready when the question comes.
One email a week, free, and you can leave at any point.
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Prices are the last trade on each Polymarket contract, read as probabilities. They move with the order book and are not a forecast from L3VLUP. Shown for learning, not for trading.