Fed Decision in October?
Resolves 29 Oct 2026
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase7%
- 50+ bps increase0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
No change, 30 days
+57 pts
What the crowd is pricing.
“What do you expect the Fed to do?” has a right answer, and it is a number with a date on it. These are the open contracts on central bank decisions, yields, oil, listings and takeovers, each with the outcome the crowd rates most likely, the full distribution, and where that probability was a month ago. Say the number, then say why you agree or not.
Rates
Where the crowd puts the next central bank move. The discount rate in every DCF, the cost of debt in every LBO, and the first macro question in a markets interview.
Fed Decision in December?
Resolves 10 Dec 2026
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change21%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
25 bps increase, 30 days
+7 pts
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
72%Below 4.70%
- Below 4.70%72%
- Below 4.65%63%
- Below 4.60%56%
- Below 4.55%45%
Below 4.70%, 30 days
-3 pts
Markets
What the crowd expects of yields, oil and the index. The backdrop for "tell me about the market" and for any pitch that has a macro leg.
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolves 1 Jan 2028
28%$1.75–$2.0T
- $1.75–$2.0T28%
- $2.0–$2.25T19%
- $1.5–$1.75T19%
- $2.25–$2.5T9%
- $1.25–$1.5T8%
$1.75–$2.0T, 30 days
+7 pts
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Resolves 1 Nov 2026
69%↓ $100
- ↓ $10069%
- ↑ $10563%
- ↓ $9528%
- ↑ $11025%
↓ $100, 30 days
+11 pts
Anthropic IPO by __?
Resolves 1 Jan 2027
82%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 202682%
- December 15, 202682%
- November 30, 202664%
- November 25, 202650%
December 31, 2026, 30 days
+6 pts
Deals
Which listings, takeovers and market-cap races the crowd is pricing. The IPO and M&A pipeline as a set of probabilities rather than a rumour.
US recession by end of 2026?
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
91%No
- No91%
- Yes10%
No, 30 days
+0 pts
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Resolves 1 Nov 2026
67%Apple
- Apple67%
- NVIDIA32%
- Microsoft0%
- Alphabet0%
- Tesla0%
Apple, 30 days
-26 pts
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Resolves 1 Jan 2027
14%Perplexity AI
- Perplexity AI14%
- PayPal13%
- Viking Therapeutics12%
- Brown-Forman8%
Perplexity AI, 30 days
+8 pts
How to use a number like this in the room
State it with its date. “The market has no change at the September meeting at roughly even odds” is an answer. “I think they will hold” is an opinion the interviewer will test.
Take a side. The probability is the consensus. The interview is about whether you can argue for or against it in two sentences: the last inflation print, the labour data, what the Chair said.
Connect it to the job. A 25 bps move changes the discount rate in a DCF, the coupon on a leveraged loan, and the multiple a sponsor can pay. Say which one your seat cares about.
Now turn the number into an answer
A probability is where the argument starts. These are the pages that give you the second half of it: what is actually happening, who is positioned for it, and what it does to a model.
The odds, every week, with what moved them
One email a week on where the crowd moved on rates, oil and the deal pipeline, and the one line to have ready when the question comes.
One email a week, free, and you can leave at any point.
Prices are the last trade on each Polymarket contract, read as probabilities. They move with the order book and are not a forecast from L3VLUP. Shown for learning, not for trading.