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Reverse DCF

A normal DCF asks “what’s it worth?” A reverse DCF asks the smarter question: what is the market already assuming? Put in the price and the cash flow, and read off the growth rate baked into today’s quote.

Assumptions
Sector presets
At $150, the market is implying
11.0%
FCF growth per year for 10 years, then 2.5% forever.
Demanding
Above-average execution is already in the price. Find a specific reason the company can beat this rate before calling it cheap.
This is the bar the price sets, not a forecast. Whether the company can clear it is the whole question.
How fragile is that number?

Every cell is the implied growth rate, in percent a year, at a different pair of assumptions. The outlined cell is your current setting. Greener means an easier bar to clear, redder means the market needs heroics. Until a share price and a cash flow are entered above there is nothing to solve, and every cell shows a dash.

Discount rate ↓ / terminal growth →1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
7.0%8%7%6%5%4%
8.0%10%9%9%8%7%
9.0%12%12%11%10%10%
10.0%14%14%13%13%12%
11.0%16%16%15%15%14%
This back-solves the bar. Variant, part of Pro, tells you if the company can actually clear it, grading your estimate against the real SEC filings.Get Variant

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