The research worth reading, read for you first.
Public research from central banks, finance ministries and international institutions, chosen for what it teaches someone heading into markets, banking or investing. Each note says why it matters, what it found and what to take from it, with the original one click away.
Rates and the curve
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 12 Feb 2026
Why have far-forward nominal Treasury rates increased so much in the past few years? Old risks reemerge in an era of Fed credibility
It explains why the 10-year yield stayed above 4 percent while the Fed cut, a question any rates, credit or macro interviewer may put to a candidate this year.
European Central Bank (The ECB Blog) · 14 Nov 2024
Quantitative Tightening: How do shrinking Eurosystem bond holdings affect long-term interest rates?
How much does quantitative tightening move bond yields? This post gives a concrete basis-point estimate per trillion euros and shows why spreads across euro area sovereigns respond differently.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 3 Sept 2024
The Treasury Tantrum of 2023
Splitting a move in the 10-year yield into expected policy and term premium is a standard markets question. This note gives a usable rule of thumb and a recent episode to cite.
U.S. Department of the Treasury · 2 Aug 2023
Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost
Refunding statements set how much duration the market must absorb. Reading one closely is the quickest way to understand supply, bills versus coupons, and why rates desks watch these mornings.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Staff Reports) · Feb 2022
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Mortgage rates are priced off MBS, not the policy rate. This survey explains prepayment risk, negative convexity and the option-adjusted spread, the vocabulary of any fixed income or securitised products interview.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 28 Jun 2018
(Don't Fear) The Yield Curve
Every rates interview eventually asks whether an inverted curve predicts recession. This note shows which part of the curve carries the signal and why, which turns a cliché into an argument.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Liberty Street Economics) · 12 May 2014
Treasury Term Premia: 1961-Present
The ACM term premium is the series markets quote when they say the term premium rose or fell. Knowing how it is built, and how it differs from survey-based measures, separates a prepared candidate.
Inflation
Bank for International Settlements (BIS Bulletin No 82) · 20 Dec 2023
The contribution of monetary policy to disinflation
Did rate hikes bring inflation down, or did supply shocks simply fade? Interviewers in macro, rates and research roles ask exactly this, and this bulletin gives a careful two-sided answer.
Banking
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 12 Apr 2024
Is This Time Different: How Are Banks Performing during the Recent Interest Rate Increases Compared to 2004-2006?
Bank coverage, equity research and FIG interviews all turn on how rising rates feed net interest margin. This note walks through both sides of the balance sheet with real data.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Liberty Street Economics) · 27 Mar 2024
Deposits and the March 2023 Banking Crisis–A Retrospective
The 2023 bank runs are a staple of banking and FIG interviews. This retrospective shows what actually happened to deposit pricing and funding afterwards, beyond the headlines about the failed banks.
Markets
Growth
World Bank · Jun 2026
Global Economic Prospects, June 2026: Highlights from Chapter 1, The Global Outlook
A current, sourced view of world growth, the energy shock and downside scenarios gives any markets or macro interview answer a footing beyond headlines, especially on emerging markets and commodities.
Monetary policy
Currencies
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 18 Jul 2025
The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition
Dollar dominance comes up in FX, macro and global markets interviews, usually framed around sanctions, gold or stablecoins. This note supplies the numbers to answer with evidence rather than opinion.
Credit
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 23 Feb 2024
Private Credit: Characteristics and Risks
Private credit is now a standard topic in private equity, leveraged finance and credit fund interviews. This note gives the loan-level facts: size, spreads, coverage, recoveries and where the risks sit.