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Global Economic Prospects, June 2026: Highlights from Chapter 1, The Global Outlook

World Bank · Jun 2026

Why it matters

A current, sourced view of world growth, the energy shock and downside scenarios gives any markets or macro interview answer a footing beyond headlines, especially on emerging markets and commodities.

What it says

The World Bank's mid-2026 outlook cuts its forecast for world growth to 2.5 percent this year, with nearly two-thirds of economies facing weaker prospects as surging energy prices, commodity disruption, uncertainty and tighter monetary conditions bite. Emerging and developing economies carry most of the downgrade, especially commodity importers and countries directly affected by the Middle East conflict, while robust US growth and AI-related investment are named as pockets of resilience. Growth is expected to recover to 2.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 as energy prices fall and financial conditions ease. Risks lean to the downside: a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, renewed conflict, trade tensions, tighter financing and a correction in technology equities. The policy agenda stresses food and energy security, trade cooperation, careful monetary calibration and protecting limited fiscal space.

What to take from it

  1. 1

    Developing economy growth is projected at 3.6 percent in 2026, 0.4 percentage point below January's projection, before firming to 4.2 percent in 2027 to 2028.

  2. 2

    If Brent averages $115 a barrel in 2026, global growth could fall 0.4 point short of baseline; with financial stress too, 1.2 points, leaving just 1.3 percent.

  3. 3

    The euro area is forecast to grow 0.8 percent in 2026 against 2.2 percent for the United States.

  4. 4

    Excluding China and India, developing economies face nearly a lost decade of income convergence with advanced economies.

  5. 5

    About 1.2 billion young people in developing economies are expected to reach working age by 2035.

Put it to work on L3VLUP

Original: Global Economic Prospects, June 2026: Highlights from Chapter 1, The Global Outlook, World Bank (opens in a new tab)

The summary and takeaways are L3VLUP’s reading of the publication, not the publisher’s own words or views.

Source: World Bank. 2026. Global Economic Prospects, June 2026. Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.

This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.

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