The building blocks of every model
A model is a handful of schedules wired together. Learn the schedule and you can find it in every model that uses it; each page below explains one, lists the lines a good version carries, names the mistakes a reviewer looks for, and shows exactly where it sits in each downloadable model.
The statements
Revenue build
Where the top line comes from
In Integrated three-statement model, Discounted cash flow model, Leveraged buyout model
Operating costs and margins
Cost of sales, opex, EBITDA
In Integrated three-statement model
Tax
Tax on profit, and tax on operating profit
In Discounted cash flow model, Leveraged buyout model, Merger model: accretion and dilution
Equity roll-forward
Share capital and retained earnings
In Integrated three-statement model
Cash flow statement
Indirect method, closing on balance-sheet cash
In Integrated three-statement model, Discounted cash flow model, Leveraged buyout model
Balance sheet
Every line from a schedule, and the check
In Integrated three-statement model
Operating schedules
Working capital schedule
Receivables, inventory and payables in days
In Integrated three-statement model, Discounted cash flow model, Leveraged buyout model, Medtech installed-base and consumables model
Capex and depreciation (PP&E roll-forward)
Opening, plus capex, less depreciation, closing
In Integrated three-statement model, Discounted cash flow model, Leveraged buyout model, Medtech installed-base and consumables model
Financing schedules
Debt schedule
Tranches, interest, amortisation and the sweep
In Integrated three-statement model, Leveraged buyout model, Merger model: accretion and dilution, Credit model
Debt capacity
How much a borrower can borrow, and which test binds
In Credit model
Covenant compliance and headroom
Leverage, interest cover, fixed charge cover, EBITDA cushion
In Credit model
Maturity profile and refinancing
What falls due when, and whether it can be refinanced
In Credit model
Valuation and returns
Cost of capital (WACC)
CAPM, after-tax debt, target weights
In Discounted cash flow model
Discounting and terminal value
Discount factors, two terminal methods, reconciled
In Discounted cash flow model
Enterprise value to equity value
Debt off, cash on, per share
In Discounted cash flow model
Returns analysis
Exit value, MOIC, IRR and the bridge
In Leveraged buyout model
Sensitivity tables
Two assumptions at once, without a data table
In Discounted cash flow model, Leveraged buyout model, Merger model: accretion and dilution
Calendarisation
Every peer on the same calendar year
In Comparable companies model
LTM build
Last fiscal year, plus the stub, less the prior stub
In Comparable companies model
Trading multiples
Enterprise value, the five multiples, and the range
In Comparable companies model
Precedent transactions
What acquirers paid for control
In Comparable companies model
Football field
Each range applied to the target, to a share price
In Comparable companies model
Transaction schedules
Sources and uses
What the deal costs and who funds it
In Leveraged buyout model, Merger model: accretion and dilution, Purchase price allocation model
Purchase price and consideration
Offer, premium, mix, new shares, exchange ratio
In Merger model: accretion and dilution
Synergies
Run-rate, phase-in, after tax
In Merger model: accretion and dilution
Purchase accounting
The write-up that amortises
In Merger model: accretion and dilution, Purchase price allocation model
Pro forma EPS: accretion and dilution
Standalone to pro forma, per share
In Merger model: accretion and dilution
Contribution analysis
What each side brings against what it owns
In Merger model: accretion and dilution
Goodwill calculation
From the price to goodwill, through every write-up
In Purchase price allocation model
Deferred taxes in an acquisition
The DTL on write-ups, its unwind, and the step-up
In Purchase price allocation model
Closing balance sheet
Acquirer plus target plus adjustments, balanced
In Purchase price allocation model
Venture schedules
SAFE conversion
What a post-money SAFE turns into at the round
In Cap table and exit waterfall model
Priced round and option pool
Pre-money to price per share, with the pool shuffle
In Cap table and exit waterfall model
Exit waterfall
Preference or conversion, then what reaches the common
In Cap table and exit waterfall model
Project finance schedules
Construction funding
Draws, interest during construction, fees, equity
In Project finance model, Real estate development model, PPP availability payment model
CFADS
Cash flow available for debt service
In Project finance model, PPP availability payment model
Debt sculpting
Service shaped to CFADS at a target DSCR
In Project finance model
Coverage ratios
DSCR, LLCR and PLCR
In Project finance model, PPP availability payment model
Reserve accounts
Debt service reserve and maintenance reserve
In Project finance model, PPP availability payment model
Distribution waterfall
Debt service, reserves, lock-up, equity
In Project finance model
Project and equity returns
Gearing, project IRR, equity IRR and multiple
In Project finance model, PPP availability payment model
Unitary charge and deductions
The availability payment, its indexation and the deductions
In PPP availability payment model
Annuity repayment
Level debt service: interest falls, principal rises
In PPP availability payment model
Pricing a PPP bid
The unitary charge that gives the target equity IRR
In PPP availability payment model
Value for money
PPP payments against the public sector comparator
In PPP availability payment model
Real estate schedules
Rent roll
Every lease, year by year, with expiries priced in
In Property acquisition model
NOI build
Gross rent to net operating income
In Property acquisition model
Loan sizing: LTV, DSCR and debt yield
The lender lends to the tightest of three constraints
In Property acquisition model, Real estate development model
Mortgage debt schedule
Constant payment, interest, principal, balloon
In Property acquisition model
Property returns
Unlevered and levered IRR, multiple, cash-on-cash, exit cap sensitivity
In Property acquisition model
Equity waterfall: preferred return, catch-up, promote
How the levered cash is split between investors and sponsor
In Property acquisition model
Development budget and draw profile
Land, hard and soft costs, contingency, fee, S-curve
In Real estate development model
Lease-up and stabilisation
Absorption, occupancy, NOI, TI and commissions
In Real estate development model
Development returns and spread
Yield on cost, development spread, profit on cost, IRR
In Real estate development model
Same-store NOI and portfolio growth
Growth on buildings owned, plus what was bought and sold
In REIT model: FFO, AFFO and NAV
FFO and AFFO
From net income to the measures REITs are priced on
In REIT model: FFO, AFFO and NAV
REIT capital allocation
Funding deals, the dividend, leverage and the investment spread
In REIT model: FFO, AFFO and NAV
REIT net asset value
NAV per share, the premium or discount, the implied cap rate
In REIT model: FFO, AFFO and NAV
Restructuring schedules
Cash receipts and the collections curve
Sales to cash, week by week
In 13-week cash flow model
Cash disbursements by calendar
What is paid, and on which Friday
In 13-week cash flow model
Borrowing base and availability
What the revolver will actually lend this week
In 13-week cash flow model
Liquidity forecast and covenant headroom
Cash, availability, headroom, shortfall
In 13-week cash flow model
Claims by class
The claims register a recovery is built on
In Recovery waterfall model
Absolute priority distribution
Value paid out by seniority, collateral first
In Credit model, Recovery waterfall model
Fulcrum analysis and implied returns
Which class is the fulcrum, and what it returns
In Recovery waterfall model
Healthcare schedules
Clinical probability and stage gating
The chance of reaching the market, and what it weights
In Biotech rNPV and sum-of-the-parts model
Launch curve
Patients times price, ramped to peak, eroded at exclusivity loss
In Biotech rNPV and sum-of-the-parts model
Programme rNPV
Revenue to risk-adjusted cash flow to a value
In Biotech rNPV and sum-of-the-parts model
Sum of the parts
Programmes, corporate costs, net cash, per share
In Biotech rNPV and sum-of-the-parts model
Binary events: the Phase 3 readout
Value on success, value on failure, the implied probability
In Biotech rNPV and sum-of-the-parts model
Installed base and utilisation
Systems shipped, retired and in use, and procedures
In Medtech installed-base and consumables model
Consumables pull-through and recurring revenue
Instruments per procedure, service, leases, margins
In Medtech installed-base and consumables model
Placement economics: sell or lease
Lifetime value of a system sold or leased, payback
In Medtech installed-base and consumables model
Technology schedules
Sales capacity
Reps, ramp, quota: the new ARR a team can close
In SaaS operating model
ARR roll-forward
Opening, new, expansion, churn, closing
In SaaS operating model
Bookings, billings and deferred revenue
Cash before revenue, and the balance in between
In SaaS operating model
SaaS profit and loss
Gross margin, sales and marketing, R&D, G&A, cash
In SaaS operating model
Unit economics
CAC, payback, LTV, retention, magic number, burn multiple
In SaaS operating model
Cohort GMV
Buyer cohorts, retention, frequency, orders, GMV
In Marketplace model: GMV, take rate and contribution
Take rate
From GMV to net revenue
In Marketplace model: GMV, take rate and contribution
Contribution margin
What an order leaves after the costs it brings
In Marketplace model: GMV, take rate and contribution
Buyer economics
One cohort: GMV retention, LTV to CAC, payback
In Marketplace model: GMV, take rate and contribution