Backlog roll-forward: contracts to revenue to cash
Bookings, revenue recognised, backlog, prepayments.
By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.
On this subject: backlog roll-forward: contracts to revenue to cash.Updated 30 October 2026
Part of project finance and infrastructure models, with the models, labs and guides around it.
What it does
The schedule that keeps contracts, revenue and cash apart. A contract adds its whole value to backlog when it is signed; each year the revenue recognised under it comes off; closing backlog is opening plus new contracts less revenue recognised, and should equal the value still to run on every contract. A prepayment at signing is cash before revenue and sits as deferred revenue until released; receivables put revenue before cash. Backlog says how much revenue is secured, not how much has been earned or collected.
Where it lives
The same schedule in each model that carries it, with the rows to open. Open a model in the browser, go to the sheet, and click the lines.
- Assumptions, rows 41–53: Cohort 1: share of GPU-hours contracted, Cohort 1: contract tenor, Cohort 1: contracted price, Cohort 2: share of GPU-hours contracted…
- Revenue, rows 38–46: Cohort 1: contract value at signing, Cohort 2: contract value at signing, Cohort 3: contract value at signing, Backlog, opening…
- Revenue, rows 49–54: Prepayments received at signing, Prepayments released to revenue, Deferred revenue, closing, Check: deferred revenue - prepayment share of backlog…
- Reported, rows 68–86: Remaining performance obligations (RPO), 31 December, RPO at 31 March 2026, RPO at 30 June 2026, Share of RPO at 31 December 2025 expected within 24 months…
- Derived, rows 34–46: Revenue from committed contracts, New commitments, net, implied: change in RPO + committed revenue recognised, Book-to-bill: new commitments / committed revenue, RPO at the year end / the year’s revenue…
- Forecast, rows 65–76: Book-to-bill: new commitments / committed revenue, base (editorial), Book-to-bill, downside (editorial), Book-to-bill, upside (editorial), Book-to-bill, selected…
- P&L & Cash Flow, rows 48–53: RPO, opening (FY2026E: at 30 June 2026), Less committed revenue recognised (FY2026E: the second half), Plus new commitments, net, Less backlog never delivered…
- Coverage, rows 6–13: Window: from, months after 30 June 2026, Window: to, months after 30 June 2026, Share a month in the first band, Share a month in the second band…
What a reviewer looks for
- Backlog added to revenue or counted as cash.
- Backlog that does not tie to the value left on each contract.
- Prepayments counted as revenue when received.
Learn it, then build it
Vocabulary: Deferred Revenue.