Rolling forecast: actuals, reforecast and the outturn
Actuals to date plus a reforecast of the rest.
By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.
On this subject: rolling forecast: actuals, reforecast and the outturn.Updated 4 November 2026
What it does
The latest view of the year. For every month already closed the forecast takes the actual from the ledger; for every month still to come it takes the plan moved by the finance team’s view of each driver (volume, price and unit cost by product, heads, cost per head and non-pay by department), and a scenario moves it again. A single input, the last month closed, draws the line between the two, so the same workbook serves every month-end. The full-year column is the outturn, compared with the plan in every variance that follows.
Where it lives
The same schedule in each model that carries it, with the rows to open. Open a model in the browser, go to the sheet, and click the lines.
- Assumptions, rows 36–53: Premium: volume against plan, Premium: price against plan, Premium: unit cost against plan, Core: volume against plan…
- Scenarios, rows 6–13: Volume, change, Volume, change, selected, Price, change, Price, change, selected…
- Actuals, rows 6–10: Units, Revenue, Direct cost, Price…
- Actuals, rows 13–17: Units, Revenue, Direct cost, Price…
- Actuals, rows 20–24: Units, Revenue, Direct cost, Price…
- Actuals, rows 27–30: Heads, Pay, Non-pay, Cost per head
- Actuals, rows 33–36: Heads, Pay, Non-pay, Cost per head
- Actuals, rows 39–42: Heads, Pay, Non-pay, Cost per head
- Actuals, rows 45–48: Revenue, Gross margin, Operating costs, EBITDA
- Forecast, rows 6–7: Month, Actual month
- Forecast, rows 10–15: Units, Price, Revenue, Unit cost…
- Forecast, rows 18–23: Units, Price, Revenue, Unit cost…
- Forecast, rows 26–31: Units, Price, Revenue, Unit cost…
- Forecast, rows 34–38: Units, Revenue, Direct cost, Gross margin…
- Forecast, rows 41–45: Heads, Cost per head, Pay, Non-pay…
- Forecast, rows 48–52: Heads, Cost per head, Pay, Non-pay…
- Forecast, rows 55–59: Heads, Cost per head, Pay, Non-pay…
- Forecast, rows 62–65: Heads, Pay, Non-pay, Operating costs
- Forecast, rows 68–70: EBITDA, EBITDA margin, EBITDA against plan
- Headcount, rows 15–25: Sales and marketing: forecast heads, Sales and marketing: forecast net hires, Sales and marketing: forecast against plan, Supply chain: forecast heads…
What a reviewer looks for
- Closed months reforecast, so the actuals are overwritten by estimates.
- Actual prices and unit costs typed as rates rather than derived from the amounts booked.
- A reforecast that is the plan unchanged, so the outturn says nothing new about the rest of the year.
Learn it, then build it
Vocabulary: Rolling Forecast.