Launch curve
Patients times price, ramped to peak, eroded at exclusivity loss.
By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.
On this subject: launch curve.Updated 30 September 2026
What it does
A drug’s revenue is patients times price. The addressable population, the share diagnosed and treated, and a peak penetration reached over a ramp of several years give patients; a gross price less the gross-to-net discount gives the net price; the product is net revenue until exclusivity is lost, after which a retained share continues against generics. Peak sales, the number everyone quotes, falls out of the same inputs.
Where it lives
The same schedule in each model that carries it, with the rows to open. Open a model in the browser, go to the sheet, and click the lines.
- Programmes, rows 12–18: Addressable patients (thousands), Diagnosed and treated, Peak penetration of treated patients, Years from launch to peak…
- Programme A, rows 11–16: On the market (1), Share of peak penetration reached, Patients treated (thousands), Net price per patient ($ thousands)…
- Programme B, rows 11–16: On the market (1), Share of peak penetration reached, Patients treated (thousands), Net price per patient ($ thousands)…
- Programme C, rows 11–16: On the market (1), Share of peak penetration reached, Patients treated (thousands), Net price per patient ($ thousands)…
What a reviewer looks for
- A growth rate in place of patients and price.
- Gross price used as net.
- No erosion after loss of exclusivity, or the wrong year for it.
Learn it, then build it
Vocabulary: Peak Sales, Loss of Exclusivity (LOE), Gross-to-Net.