ICG management buyout model
The 2026 Irish Continental Group MBO: preferred, debt, rollover, returns. Read a real management buyout from its announcement: separate equity value from enterprise value, cash from rollover, facilities from debt drawn and preferred from ordinary, and say what each class earns under the base, downside and upside cases.
Built in: Private equity, Investment banking, Equity research and hedge funds
By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.
On this subject: icg management buyout model.Updated 25 October 2026
Built for Deal in Focus: Inside the ICG buyout, where the transaction, its timeline and its sources are set out.
Who builds it, and for whatThe model an adviser, a lender or a shareholder builds when a management team bids for the company it runs: the offer as a premium and a multiple, the funding as the announcement, the Scheme Document and the financing agreements describe it, the operating case the debt has to carry, and the exit divided between a preferred investor and the team. Built from the transaction’s own published documents, with every undisclosed or blacked-out term labelled as an assumption.
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| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Assumptions | ||||||||||
| 2 | €m unless stated. Disclosed figures carry their source on the Sources sheet; the rest are illustrative inputs. | ||||||||||
| 4 | Driver | Unit | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | FY2031E | Notes | |
| 5 | Scenario | ||||||||||
| 6 | Scenario | # | 1 | 1 = base, 2 = downside, 3 = upside. Sets revenue growth and EBITDA margin by division. | |||||||
| 8 | The offer (Rule 2.7 announcement, 24 July 2026) | ||||||||||
| 9 | Offer price | € per share | 8.00 | Cash, for each ICG share. Change it to test a higher or lower price. | |||||||
| 10 | Shares in issue | m shares | 148.47 | At the latest practicable date; no treasury shares. | |||||||
| 11 | Share awards outstanding | m shares | 3.50 | Maximum shares issuable under the Performance Share Plan. | |||||||
| 12 | Closing price, 24 July 2026 | € per share | 6.24 | ||||||||
| 13 | Three-month volume-weighted average price | € per share | 6.39 | ||||||||
| 14 | Six-month volume-weighted average price | € per share | 6.40 | ||||||||
| 15 | Twelve-month volume-weighted average price | € per share | 5.93 | ||||||||
| 16 | Adjusted diluted earnings per share, FY2025 | € per share | 0.45 | The basis of the announcement’s 17.9x price to earnings. | |||||||
| 17 | Net debt at 31 December 2025, leases included | €m | 256.1 | The basis of the announcement’s 9.8x EV/EBITDA. | |||||||
| 19 | The MBO Team | ||||||||||
| 20 | ICG shares held by the MBO Team | m shares | 35.15 | Rothwell 32.34m, Freeman 1.16m, Sheen 0.85m, Ledwidge 0.79m; about 23.7% of shares in issue. | |||||||
| 21 | Cash proceeds to the MBO Team at the offer price | €m | 90.0 | Disclosed: 11,250,000 shares bought by BidCo for €90m under share purchase agreements (Subscription Agreement p.10), about a third of the team’s shares; the balance is rolled. | |||||||
| 22 | MBO Team share of the ordinary equity | % | 100.0% | On the documents. ManagementCo is owned and controlled by the MBO Team (Scheme Document p.26), and its rollover is about 30% of the equity including the preferred, which leaves no other ordinary holder. The Management Incentive Arrangement is a put and call option over managers’ clog-scheme shares at no more than €8.00, not a share of this class (p.36). | |||||||
| 24 | Senior facilities (Senior Facilities Agreement, 24 July 2026) | ||||||||||
| 25 | Facility B, euro term loan | €m | 783.0 | Disclosed: €783m, €391.5m each from Banco Santander and BNP Paribas (SFA pp.83 and 275), for the Acquisition, the refinancing of ICG’s existing debt and the costs (clause 3.1, p.100). | |||||||
| 26 | Original Revolving Facility | €m | 75.0 | Disclosed: €75m, €37.5m from each bank (SFA pp.83 and 275), for general corporate and working capital purposes (clause 3.1(b), p.101). | |||||||
| 27 | Of which drawable for the Acquisition on a certain funds basis | €m | 15.0 | Disclosed: a Certain Funds Utilisation is Facility B or up to €15m of the revolver (SFA p.19). €783m + €15m is the €798m of the Scheme Document (p.75). | |||||||
| 28 | Senior facilities available for the Acquisition | €m | 798.0 | Facility B + the revolver’s certain funds part. Drawn in full at close, the "€798 million of senior debt above the equity base" (Scheme Document p.26); the rest of the revolver stays undrawn. | |||||||
| 29 | Base rate: EURIBOR on Facility B, compounded rate on the revolver | % | 2.0% | Illustrative. Not disclosed. At least 70% of the term debt must be fixed or hedged within 60 days of closing (SFA clause 26.24, p.199), so most of the rate is set near completion; held flat here. | |||||||
| 30 | Senior margin | % | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | Disclosed: 2.85%, then 2.95%, 3.15%, 3.25% and 3.40% after the first to fourth anniversaries of first utilisation, 3.65% after the sixth (Scheme Document p.75). Set by time alone, on both facilities: no leverage ratchet (SFA, Margin, p.40). One model year per loan year. | |||
| 31 | Senior all-in interest rate | % | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | Base rate + margin. On the opening balance. | |||
| 32 | Final repayment of the facilities | months | 84 | Disclosed: 84 months from the Closing Date, the first drawing of Facility B (SFA pp.20 and 82; Scheme Document p.75), after the five-year exit. | |||||||
| 33 | Scheduled amortisation, % of Facility B a year | % | 0.0% | Disclosed: none. Facility B is repaid in full on the Termination Date (SFA clause 10.1, p.127). Set a rate to test a schedule. | |||||||
| 34 | Cash sweep: Relevant Percentage of excess cash flow | % | 75.0% | Illustrative rate, disclosed mechanism: each half-year, the Relevant Percentage of Excess Cashflow less €5m prepays Facility B first (SFA clauses 12.3 and 12.5, pp.134 to 136). The three percentages, by period from closing, are blacked out. | |||||||
| 35 | Deducted from each half-year’s sweep | €m | 5.0 | Disclosed: €5m a Financial Half-Year (SFA clause 12.3(b)(ii), p.135), so €10m a year. | |||||||
| 36 | Cash above the minimum applied to prepay voluntarily | % | 100.0% | Illustrative. Cash the sweep does not take stays with the company (SFA clause 12.8(c), p.138), and prepayment carries no premium (clause 13.2, p.139). 100% repays the revolver, then Facility B; 0% keeps the cash. | |||||||
| 37 | Minimum cash balance | €m | 20.0 | Illustrative. | |||||||
| 38 | Minimum equity contribution | % | 40.0% | Disclosed: equity, the preferred and the rollover included, of at least 40% of equity plus the debt drawn at close, a condition of first drawing (SFA Schedule 2, p.279). | |||||||
| 39 | Transaction and financing costs | €m | 30.0 | Illustrative. The SFA’s fees (clause 17, pp.145 to 147) and the preferred’s fees and capped expenses (Subscription Agreement p.15) exist; every amount is blacked out. Each party pays its own expenses (Scheme Document p.80). Paid at close. | |||||||
| 41 | Preferred equity (Subscription Agreement, 24 July 2026) | ||||||||||
| 42 | Preferred equity subscribed | €m | 455.0 | Disclosed: GIP’s binding commitment to fund €455m into Bluefin Topco (SFA p.74; Scheme Document p.76), for preference shares and Profit Share Securities (Subscription Agreement pp.8 and 9). | |||||||
| 43 | Of which paid for the Profit Share Securities | €m | - | Illustrative. Each commitment is in Schedule 1 of the Subscription Agreement, blacked out (p.17). Nil treats the whole €455m as preference shares. | |||||||
| 44 | Issue discount on the subscription | % | 0.0% | Illustrative. Both securities are subscribed at €1.00, paid net of an issue discount whose rate is blacked out (Subscription Agreement pp.8, 9 and 15). Nil: the €455m is the cash received. | |||||||
| 45 | Preferred Return on the preference shares | % | 10.0% | Illustrative. The shares are cumulative and redeemable (Subscription Agreement p.8) and carry a Preferred Return (p.14), set in a Shareholders’ Agreement that is not published. Compounds on the opening claim while unpaid. | |||||||
| 46 | Share of the Preferred Return paid in cash (a what-if) | % | 0.0% | What-if. Whether it is paid or accrues is not disclosed; cumulative shares carry forward what is unpaid. 0% accrues it all. The SFA locks up excess cash when its lock-up tests fail (clause 26.18, p.197; levels blacked out). | |||||||
| 47 | Profit Share Securities: share of the equity above the preferred claim | % | 10.0% | Illustrative. The securities are issued to the preferred investor pro rata to its preference shares (Subscription Agreement p.13); their rights are in the unpublished Shareholders’ Agreement. Modelled as a share of what is left after the claim. | |||||||
| 49 | Balance sheet at 30 June 2026 (half-year report) | ||||||||||
| 50 | Bank loans, gross | €m | 215.0 | Repaid at close: Facility B’s purpose includes refinancing the Existing Indebtedness under six named ICG facilities and closing out their hedging (SFA clause 3.1(a)(ii), p.100; definitions, p.26). | |||||||
| 51 | Lease liabilities (IFRS 16) | €m | 49.7 | Carried through the hold at this level; a debt-like claim in enterprise value. | |||||||
| 52 | Cash | €m | 36.8 | Applied as a source of funds at close. | |||||||
| 54 | Operating case: Ferries Division | ||||||||||
| 55 | Revenue growth, base | % | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||
| 56 | Revenue growth, downside | % | 8.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | |||
| 57 | Revenue growth, upside | % | 14.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | |||
| 58 | Revenue growth, selected scenario | % | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||
| 59 | EBITDA margin, base | % | 23.0% | 24.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | FY2025A: 25.9% | ||
| 60 | EBITDA margin, downside | % | 21.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | |||
| 61 | EBITDA margin, upside | % | 24.5% | 25.5% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | |||
| 62 | EBITDA margin, selected scenario | % | 23.0% | 24.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |||
| 64 | Operating case: Container & Terminal Division | ||||||||||
| 65 | Revenue growth, base | % | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||
| 66 | Revenue growth, downside | % | 8.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | |||
| 67 | Revenue growth, upside | % | 14.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | |||
| 68 | Revenue growth, selected scenario | % | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||
| 69 | EBITDA margin, base | % | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | FY2025A: 12.7% | ||
| 70 | EBITDA margin, downside | % | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | |||
| 71 | EBITDA margin, upside | % | 13.0% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | |||
| 72 | EBITDA margin, selected scenario | % | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | |||
| 74 | Cash flow items (illustrative; the 2025 figures are reported) | ||||||||||
| 75 | Inter-segment revenue eliminated | €m | 33.4 | FY2025A, held flat. | |||||||
| 76 | Depreciation and amortisation | €m | 65.0 | FY2025A; held flat. Used for the tax charge only. | |||||||
| 77 | Maintenance capex | €m | 28.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | FY2025A: €19.4m; H1 2026: €15.1m. Annual overhaul and repairs. | |||
| 78 | Strategic capex | €m | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | FY2025A: €82.6m (James Joyce). Fleet and terminal investment after the Oscar Wilde payment in 2026. | |||
| 79 | Lease payments, cash | €m | 13.0 | Principal and interest on IFRS 16 leases. FY2025A: €13.2m. | |||||||
| 80 | Cash tax rate on profit before tax | % | 4.0% | Tonnage tax regime. FY2025A: €2.5m paid on €77.5m. | |||||||
| 81 | Working capital outflow, % of revenue growth | % | 0.0% | FY2025A saw an inflow of €7.8m; nil assumed. | |||||||
| 83 | Exit | ||||||||||
| 84 | Exit multiple, EV / EBITDA | x | 9.5x | Illustrative. The entry multiple is on Sources & Uses; the announcement’s 9.8x on Shareholder View. | |||||||
| 85 | Holding period | years | 5.0 | Exit at the end of FY2031E. The Sensitivity sheet shows exits after 3 and 4 years. | |||||||
| 87 | The shareholder claim (Irish Times, 14 August 2026) | ||||||||||
| 88 | Claimed undervaluation | % | 39.0% | A 1.4% holder’s claim, based on comparable transactions it did not publish. Two readings on Shareholder View. | |||||||
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ICG management buyout model: the workbook
Excel workbook with working formulas, no macros and no external links. Work with it above first; it is the same model as the preview.
- The worked model
- The workbook above as an Excel file: 11 sheets and 608 live formulas, all 8 schedules built and linked, every check reading zero. Change an input in Excel and the whole model moves, so you can rebuild a step and compare.
- The starter
- The same inputs and layout with the exit waterfall left blank for you to build, each blank cell marked. Free with any account. It has no worked answer to check yourself against; the worked model is that answer.
What the base case says
- Cash consideration to shareholders
- $1,024.6m
- Senior debt at close / FY2026E EBITDA
- 5.3x
- MBO Team rollover, % of equity capital
- 29.6%
- Ordinary MOIC
- 2.9x
- Ordinary IRR
- 23.5%
- Preferred IRR
- 11.8%
Read from the workbook as served, every input at its default. Periods: FY2025A, FY2026E, FY2027E, FY2028E, FY2029E, FY2030E, FY2031E. Built from the transaction’s published documents, cited on the Sources sheet by page, the Senior Facilities Agreement and the Subscription Agreement among them; the facilities, margin, term and sweep mechanism are as disclosed, and the terms those documents do not disclose or black out (the Preferred Return, the profit share, the base rate, the sweep’s percentage), the operating case and the exit are illustrative inputs, labelled, and move with whatever you type in.
What this model is
A transaction model of the recommended €8.00 cash offer for Irish Continental Group plc by Bluefin Bidco Limited, the vehicle of ICG’s senior management, announced on 24 July 2026 and approved by shareholders on 10 September 2026.
It funds the offer as the documents describe: a €783m term loan and €15m of a €75m revolver at EURIBOR plus a disclosed margin, €455m of cumulative preference shares and Profit Share Securities from an infrastructure credit fund, and the management team’s rolled shares as the ordinary equity, with €90m taken in cash. It then runs the two divisions through a five-year hold in three cases, services and sweeps the debt as the facilities agreement sets out, accrues the preferred, and divides the exit between the preferred investor and the ordinary.
Uses: seeing how a management buyout with preferred equity differs from a sponsor buyout; reading the offer as a premium, a multiple and an implied price; and testing what the price, the operating recovery, capex, the financing terms and the exit do to each class’s return.
Seats: Private equity, Investment banking, Equity research and hedge funds.
Careers that do this work: investment banking, private equity, growth equity, corp dev / m&a, venture capital.
How the schedules connect
Every row in the workbook is tagged with the schedule it belongs to; the inspector above shows the tag when you click a row. These are the schedules this model is made of and where each one lives.
Sources and uses
What the deal costs and who funds it
Assumptions, rows 20–22 · Sources & Uses, rows 5–10 · Sources & Uses, rows 13–18 · Sources & Uses, rows 21–26 · Sources & Uses, rows 29–39
Enterprise value to equity value
Debt off, cash on, per share
Assumptions, rows 9–17 · Assumptions, rows 50–52 · Assumptions, row 88 · Shareholder View, rows 6–12 · Shareholder View, rows 15–19 · Shareholder View, rows 22–25
Exit waterfall
Preference or conversion, then what reaches the common
Sources & Uses, rows 42–51 · Preferred, rows 6–13 · Exit & Returns, rows 6–18
Revenue build
Where the top line comes from
Assumptions, rows 55–62 · Assumptions, rows 65–72 · Operating Case, rows 6–8 · Operating Case, rows 11–13 · Operating Case, rows 16–21
Capex and depreciation (PP&E roll-forward)
Opening, plus capex, less depreciation, closing
Assumptions, rows 75–81 · Cash Flow & Debt, rows 8–9
Debt schedule
Tranches, interest, amortisation and the sweep
Assumptions, rows 25–39 · Assumptions, rows 42–47 · Cash Flow & Debt, rows 6–7 · Cash Flow & Debt, rows 10–17 · Cash Flow & Debt, rows 20–36 · Cash Flow & Debt, rows 39–44 · Cash Flow & Debt, rows 47–49
Returns analysis
Exit value, MOIC, IRR and the bridge
Assumptions, rows 84–85 · Exit & Returns, rows 21–31 · Exit & Returns, rows 34–40 · Exit & Returns, rows 43–47 · Exit & Returns, rows 50–60
Sensitivity tables
Two assumptions at once, without a data table
Sensitivity, row 5 · Sensitivity, rows 8–13 · Sensitivity, rows 16–21 · Sensitivity, rows 24–32
What you should be able to explain
- Why a management buyout with preferred equity has two returns, not one, and why the team’s 30% of the equity capital is not 30% of the proceeds.
- How the fully diluted share count, the offer price and the pre-deal net debt give an equity value and an enterprise value, and why the announcement’s multiple used a different net debt from the model’s.
- Why rollover is both a source and a use, why cash to selling shareholders is equity value less rollover, and what the takeover rules require of the rollover price.
- How cumulative preference shares accruing their return grow the senior claim on the exit, what a profit share beside them takes from the ordinary, and what both do to the ordinary’s share as the hold lengthens.
- How a facilities agreement shapes the debt: a term loan repaid at maturity, a revolver with a certain funds slice, a sweep of excess cash flow, covenants tested on its own definitions, and a rule that a higher price must be paid with equity.
What a reviewer looks for
- Treating the €1.47bn enterprise value as the funding requirement. The uses are cash to shareholders, refinancing and costs; the leases are assumed, not paid.
- Counting the rollover as cash, or leaving it out of the sources, so sources and uses only balance by accident.
- Reading the €798m as the whole of the facilities, or the preferred as debt. The agreement commits €858m: a €783m term loan and a €75m revolver, of which only €15m may be drawn for the Acquisition. The €798m is what can fund the deal; the other €60m is for running the business.
- Giving the ordinary equity its ownership share of the proceeds rather than the residual after the preferred’s accrued claim.
- Stating an actual deal IRR. The Preferred Return, the profit share, the base rate, the operating plan and the exit are not disclosed; every return here is conditional on inputs the page labels.
- Treating the preferred as a fixed-return instrument. The €455m buys preference shares and Profit Share Securities, so the preferred investor also takes a share of the upside, and its return rises with the exit value.
- Counting a Preferred Return paid in cash as a lower return than the same return accrued. Its IRR is the same; its multiple is lower only because the cash arrives sooner, and every preferred multiple here adds what it has received to the proceeds.
Conventions this workbook uses
Stated on the cover sheet too. A model is only as trustworthy as the decisions it tells you it made.
- Disclosed figures are inputs with their source on the Sources sheet, by page: among them the senior margin by year and the 84-month term (Scheme Document), and the facilities, the certain funds limit, the absence of amortisation, the sweep’s €5m deduction and the 40% minimum equity (Senior Facilities Agreement). Undisclosed or blacked-out terms (the Preferred Return and its treatment, the profit share, the issue discount, the base rate, the sweep’s percentage, costs, the operating case, the exit multiple) are illustrative inputs, labelled.
- Completion is treated as the end of FY2026E, the entry year; the hold is FY2027E to FY2031E with the exit at the end of FY2031E. Years before completion carry no deal cash flows.
- Equity value is the fully diluted share count at the offer price. Purchase enterprise value adds the net debt assumed at 30 June 2026 (bank loans and leases, less cash). The announcement’s 9.8x uses net debt at 31 December 2025; the Shareholder View sheet reproduces it.
- The MBO Team’s shares are valued at the offer price; €90m is sold for cash and the balance is rolled as the ordinary equity. Cash consideration to shareholders is equity value less the rollover.
- Facility B (€783m) and the revolver’s €15m certain funds part are drawn at close, the €798m the team calls the senior debt above the equity base; Facility B also refinances ICG’s €215m of bank loans, as its stated purpose allows. If the uses exceed the sources (a higher offer price, for instance), the model raises new ordinary equity and reports it on its own row, because the facilities agreement allows a higher price only if new investment funds it. Cash to the balance sheet is the balancing item.
- The preference shares’ claim opens at the €455m (less any part paid for the Profit Share Securities) and accrues the Preferred Return on the opening claim unless a cash share is set, being cumulative. At exit the preference shares take their claim, the Profit Share Securities their share of the equity above it, and the ordinary the rest. Equity proceeds are floored at nil.
- Interest is charged on opening balances of both facilities at the base rate plus the year’s disclosed margin, each hold year treated as one loan year from completion. Facility B has no scheduled amortisation. Each year the sweep prepays Facility B with the Relevant Percentage of excess cash flow less €10m (€5m a half-year); the revolver is drawn to hold the minimum cash; cash above the minimum then repays the revolver and Facility B at the voluntary prepayment share. Lease liabilities are held flat and count in net debt; the covenant ratios leave them out, as the agreement does.
- Returns are shown by class: MOIC and IRR for the ordinary equity on the rollover value and any new equity, and for the preferred investor on the cash it paid in, every preferred multiple (by year, at exit and on the grid) counting the return it has received in cash to that exit beside its proceeds. The MBO Team’s all-in figure adds the cash taken at close and is undiscounted.
- The returns bridge decomposes the gain to all equity into EBITDA growth at the entry multiple, multiple change on exit EBITDA, net debt reduction and costs, then deducts the preference shares’ return and the profit share to reach the ordinary’s gain.
Build it yourself
The starter workbook
The exit waterfall has been cleared: the exit value by year, the preference shares’ claim, the profit share, the ordinary’s proceeds and the two classes’ multiples on the Exit & Returns sheet, the preferred’s accrued claim, and who owns what at close. Rebuild them from the Cash Flow & Debt sheet and the Assumptions, so that the returns and the bridge calculate again. The Checks sheet shows when preferred plus ordinary equals the equity proceeds in every year.
Blanks: Exit waterfall. Free with any account. Compare with the worked model when you are done: download above.
The path around this model
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Vocabulary: Management Buyout (MBO), Scheme of Arrangement, Rollover Equity, Preferred Equity (Buyout), Sources and Uses, Net Debt, IRR, Cash Sweep, Revolving Credit Facility (Revolver).
Questions about this model
How much of this model is disclosed and how much is assumed?
Disclosed: the offer price, the share count, the premia, the team’s €90m of cash proceeds and roughly 30% share of the equity capital, the 2025 results and the June 2026 balance sheet; from the Scheme Document, the margin by year (2.85% over EURIBOR, stepping up to 3.40% in the fifth year) and the 84-month term; from the Senior Facilities Agreement, the €783m term loan and €75m revolver (€15m of it for the deal), no amortisation, the refinancing of ICG’s existing debt, the sweep’s mechanism and its €5m deduction, the hedging and the 40% minimum equity; from the Subscription Agreement, that the €455m buys cumulative redeemable preference shares and Profit Share Securities. The Sources sheet gives the page for each. The agreements black out every rate that matters to the returns: the Preferred Return, the profit share, the issue discount, the sweep’s percentage, the covenant levels and the fees. Those, the base rate, the costs, the operating case and the exit are inputs labelled illustrative, so the returns are conditional scenarios, never the deal’s actual returns.
Why is the ordinary equity only the management team’s rolled shares?
Because that is what the announcement describes: the team sells about a third of its shares for €90m of cash and rolls the rest into the acquisition vehicle, contributing about 30% of the combined equity including the preferred. No other ordinary investor is named, and ManagementCo is owned and controlled by the four of them. The Management Incentive Arrangement approved at the EGM does not change that: it lets key senior managers keep some of their existing ICG shares under put and call options, bought later at €8.00, rather than giving them a share of the new company. The model still carries a share input for the team, at 100% by default.
What happens in the model if the offer price is raised?
The equity value rises, the rollover rises with it, and the cash consideration rises by the rest. The preferred and the facilities are fixed by the documents, and the facilities agreement allows a higher price only if new investment pays for it, so the model raises new ordinary equity and reports it on its own row. At €9.00 a share that is about €117m of new equity beside a larger rollover, and the ordinary IRR falls from 23.5% to about 10% in the base case, because the same exit is shared over more capital.
Where does the 9.8x in the announcement come from, and why does the model show a different entry multiple?
The announcement divides the fully diluted equity value plus net debt at 31 December 2025 (€256.1m, leases included) by 2025 EBITDA of €150.6m, which the Shareholder View sheet reproduces at 9.8x. The model’s own entry multiple uses the net debt it actually assumes, the 30 June 2026 balance sheet, and the entry year’s EBITDA, so it reads a little differently. Both are shown because both are used.
What does the 39% claim mean in the model?
A shareholder with 1.4% said the offer undervalued the company by 39%, on the basis of comparable transactions it did not publish. The Shareholder View sheet reads the claim two ways, as a 39% discount to value (€13.11 a share, about 14.9x 2025 EBITDA) and as value 39% above the offer (€11.12, about 12.9x), and shows the multiple each would need a buyer to pay. Neither reading can be checked; the sheet shows what each would require rather than treating either as fact.
What does it cost?
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