Model the business · Nasdaq: CRWV

CoreWeave: a GPU cloud financed like a project

Weighed while the sand runs. What has been ordered sits in one pan and what was borrowed to build it in the other, very nearly level, while the sand keeps running.

CoreWeave has $103.7bn of contracts signed and $35.6bn of debt, and the question is whether the contracts pay the debt before the GPUs wear out.

By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.

On this subject: the CoreWeave, Inc. case.Updated 30 October 2026

Latest filing 22 September 2026 · Information to 30 October 2026

Explore the model Build it step by step Download Excel

Remaining performance obligations, 30 June 2026Filing: $103,700.0m; Contracted, not yet delivered: not revenue and not cash.
Debt principal, 30 June 2026Filing: $35,551.0m; Eighteen facilities and notes, before $4.2bn issued in September.
Backlog per dollar of debtDerived: 2.9x; Before the cost of delivering it and before interest.
Backlog cash / debt service to 2030Model: 1.5x; At an assumed 55% cash margin; the notes due after 2030 are not covered.

How to read the figures

Every figure on this page is a cell in the CoreWeave operating model, and each carries one of four tags.

Filing what the company filed, with its tag
Derived arithmetic on filed figures, such as a proxy or a residual
Assumption a judgement of this page, never the company’s
Model what the model computes from the three

The business

CoreWeave rents GPU capacity to AI laboratories and companies from 43 data centres it leases, mostly on multi-year take-or-pay contracts: 98% of 2025 revenue came from committed contracts, billed whether or not the capacity is used. It buys the GPU servers and the networking, fits out the halls and borrows against the contracts to pay for them.

Revenue grew from $229m in 2023 to $1,915m in 2024 and $5,131m in 2025, and to $4,653m in the first half of 2026 alone. One customer, which the 10-K names as Microsoft, brought in 67% of 2025 revenue; in the first half of 2026 the two largest brought in 40% and 23%.

Three numbers that are not the same

Remaining performance obligations are contracts signed for capacity not yet delivered: $103.7bn at 30 June 2026. Revenue is capacity delivered in the period. Cash arrives on its own timetable: customers prepay part of a contract at signing, which is why deferred revenue rose by $4,174m in 2025 and operating cash flow of $3,058m would have been minus $1,116m without it. The model never lets one stand in for another.

At 30 June 2026 and for 2025, and what kind of number each is
Measure	Figure	Kind
Remaining performance obligations, 30 June 2026	$103,700m	Reported, a GAAP disclosure: not revenue
Revenue backlog, 30 June 2026	About $104bn	Company measure: RPO plus its own estimates
Revenue, FY2025	$5,131m	Reported
Cash from customers, FY2025	$6,556m	Derived: prepayments arrive first
Adjusted EBITDA, FY2025	$3,093m	Company, non-GAAP
Operating cash flow less capital spending, FY2025	−$7,251m	Derived
Debt principal, 30 June 2026	$35,551m	Reported

Power, and what it earns

Capacity is counted in megawatts: about 1.5 GW active at 30 June 2026 against about 3.7 GW contracted, the rest sites still to be delivered. On the average of the year ends, a megawatt earned $8.48m of revenue in 2025 and $7.92m a year in the first half of 2026, and cost $1.78m and $1.99m a year in leases. No filing states what it costs in power, how much of it is drawn or how efficiently the halls run, so the model assumes all three and says so.

GPUs, depreciated over six years

Technology equipment is depreciated over six years, a life CoreWeave lengthened from five in 2023. Its committed contracts run about five years on average, so 16.7% of a server’s cost is still on the books when its contract ends. Depreciation was $2,454m in 2025, and the equipment in service at 30 June 2026 depreciates at $6,334m a year: the line that turns an adjusted EBITDA margin near 60% into an operating loss.

The debt, and when it falls due

At 30 June 2026 the debt was $35,551m: $13,643m of delayed-draw term loans secured on contracts and amortised from them, $16,617m of senior and convertible notes repaid at maturity, and equipment financing, a revolver and a customer deposit. $20,655m falls due between July 2026 and the end of 2030 and $19,096m after it, with the $4.2bn of convertible notes issued in September. Liquidity was $15,553m.

The forecast, and the race it is in

The model keeps three kinds of number on three sheets. Reported holds only what CoreWeave filed, each row with its document and tag or the statement that it is untagged. Derived holds arithmetic on Reported and nothing else: revenue per megawatt, the backlog roll, the fleet’s age, the debt by facility summed. Forecast holds the assumptions in three cases, every row an editorial judgement of this page and none of it the company’s guidance.

Set against the debt outstanding at 30 June 2026, the backlog signed by then leaves, at an assumed 55% cash margin, 1.51 times the interest and principal due to the end of 2030 (1.07 times in the downside, 1.69 times in the upside). It does not reach the $19,096m due after 2030, which falls due when 16% of that backlog is left to run and the GPU servers of June 2026 carry 9.5% of their cost. In the base case revenue reaches $27.4bn by FY2030E and the forecast still needs $9,854m of new money to 2030 beyond borrowing against new capacity. These are what the inputs imply, not a rating, a target, a fair value or a recommendation, and the page values nothing.

The base case, filed to FY2025A and forecast to FY2030E

Revenue
Adjusted EBITDA (the company’s measure)
Free cash flow less SBC (this page’s measure)
Forecast years: lighter bars, dashed lines

Read as a table

	FY2023A (filed)	FY2024A (filed)	FY2025A (filed)	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$229m	$1,915m	$5,131m	$12,063m	$20,405m	$24,700m	$27,000m	$27,380m
Adjusted EBITDA (the company’s measure)	$104m	$1,219m	$3,093m	$6,900m	$11,733m	$14,284m	$15,697m	$15,995m
Free cash flow less SBC (this page’s measure)	−$1,125m	−$5,984m	−$7,881m	−$18,682m	−$13,558m	−$6,044m	$3,224m	$9,549m

Change the case or an assumption in Explore; the filed years never move.

CaseBase caseLoading the formulas for your account.

Backlog, revenue and the cash customers pay

Remaining performance obligations at each year end against the revenue recognised and the cash collected: three different numbers, of which only one is revenue.

Remaining performance obligations at the year end: signed, not delivered, not revenue ($bn, left axis)
Revenue: capacity delivered in the year ($bn, right axis)
Cash from customers, prepayments in it ($bn, right axis)
Forecast years: lighter bars, dashed lines

Read as a table

	FY2023A (filed)	FY2024A (filed)	FY2025A (filed)	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Remaining performance obligations at the year end: signed, not delivered, not revenue ($bn, left axis)	$9.9bn	$15.1bn	$60.7bn	$107.3bn	$113.3bn	$115.8bn	$115.8bn	$113.1bn
Revenue: capacity delivered in the year ($bn, right axis)	$0.2bn	$1.9bn	$5.1bn	$12.1bn	$20.4bn	$24.7bn	$27bn	$27.4bn
Cash from customers, prepayments in it ($bn, right axis)	$2.1bn	$3.7bn	$6.6bn	$13.7bn	$18.9bn	$23.8bn	$26.4bn	$27bn

At each date	31 Dec 2025	30 Jun 2026
RPO: contracts signed, not yet delivered (GAAP)	$60,700.0m	$103,700.0m
Revenue backlog: the company’s own measure	$66,800.0m	$104,000.0m
Deferred revenue: prepaid, not yet earned	$8,185.0m	$9,692.0m

Filed: RPO at each year end and at 31 March and 30 June 2026; the company’s revenue backlog, which adds its own estimates to RPO and is never used here.
Derived: new commitments implied by the roll, book-to-bill, and cash from customers (revenue plus the rise in deferred revenue less the rise in receivables).
Assumption: book-to-bill and the share never delivered, from FY2026E. Model: the backlog, revenue and cash in forecast years.

RPO, 30 June 2026Filing: $103,700.0m; Not revenue and not cash.
Book-to-bill, first half of 2026Derived: 10.4x; New commitments for each dollar of committed revenue recognised.
Cash from customers, FY2025ADerived: $6,556.0m; Against revenue of $5,131m: prepayments arrive first.
Operating cash flow without the rise in deferred revenue, FY2025ADerived: −$1,116.0m
RPO, FY2030EModel: $113,067.3m; The selected case.

Change the assumptions

Book-to-bill, FY2027EAssumption

1.3x

Share of the backlog never deliveredAssumption

0.0%

Deferred revenue, % of the backlogAssumption

9.0%

Book-to-bill sets how much new business is signed for each dollar of committed revenue the year recognises, so below one the backlog shrinks; the share never delivered takes a slice of the backlog as it runs off, which a reported figure cannot show in advance. Deferred revenue is the part of the backlog customers have already paid for, so raising it adds operating cash flow and leaves revenue where it is.

What bounds it

Largest customer, % of FY2025 revenue Filing: 67.0%
Customer A, % of revenue, first half of 2026 Filing: 40.0%
Customer B, % of revenue, first half of 2026 Filing: 23.0%
Prepayments, weighted average across active contracts Filing: 15% to 25% of contract value

The backlog roll, FY2025A

Read as a table

Step	Value
RPO at 31 December 2024	$15,100m
New commitments, net, implied	+$50,628m
Committed revenue recognised	−$5,028m
RPO at 31 December 2025	$60,700m

CaseBase caseLoading the formulas for your account.

Step 1 of 6

The reported history: a cloud that runs at a loss after depreciation

By the end of this step: type the statement of operations from the 10-K, prove the cost lines add up, and see where depreciation and interest sit.

CoreWeave’s revenue was $229m in 2023, $1,915m in 2024 and $5,131m in 2025. Its four cost lines (cost of revenue, technology and infrastructure, sales and marketing, general and administrative) add to $5,177m for 2025, so the year closed with an operating loss of $46m; 2023 lost $14m and 2024 earned $324m.

Depreciation and amortisation was $2,454m of that, inside cost of revenue and technology and infrastructure, and interest a further $1,229m below the operating line, which is why a business with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 60% lost $1,167m. Adjusted EBITDA, $3,093m, is the company’s own measure; the Derived sheet rebuilds it exactly from the GAAP lines.

The Reported sheet holds only typed figures, each with its tag: technology and infrastructure is a company tag, crwv:TechnologyAndInfrastructure, read from the inline XBRL.

Reported rows 6 to 18Open the whole workbook

$m	FY2023A	FY2024A	FY2025A
Revenue	229.0	1,915.0	5,131.0
Cost of revenue	69.0	493.0	1,453.0
Technology and infrastructure	131.0	961.0	2,929.0
Sales and marketing	13.0	18.0	144.0
General and administrative	30.0	119.0	651.0
Total operating expenses	243.0	1,591.0	5,177.0
Operating income (loss)	(14.0)	324.0	(46.0)
Gain (loss) on fair value adjustments	(534.0)	(756.0)	27.0
Interest expense, net	(28.0)	(361.0)	(1,229.0)
Other income, net	18.0	49.0	33.0
Loss before income taxes	(558.0)	(744.0)	(1,215.0)
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes	36.0	119.0	(48.0)
Net loss	(594.0)	(863.0)	(1,167.0)

Reported: what the filings say Filing

Each figure with its period, its XBRL tag where it has one, and the filing it comes from. No guidance, estimate or press report is a model input.

Revenue and the operating lineFY2025: Revenue $5,131m, from $1,915m; total operating expenses $5,177m; operating loss $46mus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax [k25, xbrl]
Depreciation, interest and the net lossFY2025: D&A $2,454m; interest expense, net $1,229m; net loss $1,167mus-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization [k25, xbrl]
Adjusted EBITDAFY2025: $3,093m (non-GAAP), reconciled from the net loss; FY2024 $1,219m [r425]
Remaining performance obligations31 December 2025 and 30 June 2026: $60.7bn at 31 December 2025, from $15.1bn; $98.8bn at 31 March and $103.7bn at 30 June 2026, 41% expected within 24 monthsus-gaap:RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation [k25, q126, q226, xbrl]
Revenue backlog, the company’s measure31 December 2025 and 30 June 2026: $66.8bn at 31 December 2025 and about $104bn at 30 June 2026: RPO plus amounts the company estimates beyond it [r425, r226]
Deferred revenue and prepayments31 December 2025: $8,185m at 31 December 2025 and $9,692m at 30 June 2026; prepayments of 15% to 25% of contract valueus-gaap:ContractWithCustomerLiability [k25, q226, xbrl]
Customer concentrationFY2025 and H1 2026: Customer A, named as Microsoft, 67% of 2025 revenue; in the first half of 2026 Customer A 40% and Customer B 23%us-gaap:ConcentrationRiskPercentage1 [k25, q226]
Power31 December 2025 and 30 June 2026: Over 850 MW active and about 3.1 GW contracted at 31 December 2025; about 1.5 GW active and 3.7 GW contracted at 30 June 2026 [k25, r226]
Property by class and useful lives31 December 2025: Technology equipment $20,903m (six years), data centre equipment $2,842m (up to 12 years), software $802m (3 to 6 years), construction in progress $9,376mus-gaap:PropertyPlantAndEquipmentGross [k25, xbrl]
Capital spendingFY2025 and H1 2026: Purchases of property and equipment $10,309m in 2025 and $14,117m in the first half of 2026us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [k25, q226, xbrl]
Debt30 June 2026: Principal $21,615m at 31 December 2025 and $35,551m at 30 June 2026 across eighteen facilities and notes; $14,896m due after 2030us-gaap:DebtInstrumentCarryingAmount [k25, q226, xbrl]
Liquidity30 June 2026: $15,553m at 30 June 2026: cash $5,524m, securities $15m and $10,014m available under the revolver and delayed-draw facilities [q226]
After the balance sheet dateAugust and September 2026: A $2.6bn delayed-draw facility signed on 7 August 2026, and $4.2bn of 2.875% convertible notes due 2033 issued on 22 September 2026 [k0810, k0922]
Earlier yearsFY2023 and FY2024: RPO of $9.9bn, about 70 MW active, more than 53,000 GPUs and adjusted EBITDA of $104m in 2023; more than 250,000 GPUs at the end of 2024 [p424]

Derived: by arithmetic Derived

Each is computed from the reported figures and nothing else. The method is the row on the Derived sheet.

New commitments implied by the backlog roll. The change in RPO plus the committed revenue recognised: $50,628m in 2025 and $47,560m in the first half of 2026, a book-to-bill of 10.1x and 10.4x.
Revenue backlog less RPO. The company’s measure less the GAAP one: $6,100m at 31 December 2025, $300m at 30 June 2026.
Cash from customers. Revenue plus the rise in deferred revenue less the rise in receivables, from the cash flow statement: $6,556m in 2025 against revenue of $5,131m.
Operating cash flow without prepayments. Operating cash flow less the rise in deferred revenue: minus $1,116m in 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA rebuilt. Net loss less the fair value gain, plus D&A, interest, stock-based compensation, tax and acquisition costs, less the reconciliation’s other income: $3,093m, the company’s figure.
EBITDA after stock-based compensation. Operating loss plus D&A: $2,408m in 2025, so the add-backs were worth $685m.
Revenue per average active megawatt. Revenue over the mean of the year-end megawatts: $8.91m in 2024, $8.48m in 2025, $7.92m a year in the first half of 2026. An upper bound, not a price.
Lease cost per average active megawatt. Operating and variable lease cost over the same megawatts: $1.60m, $1.78m and $1.99m a year.
Capital per megawatt. Gross property placed in service (total less construction in progress) per megawatt added: $30.4m in 2025, $24.8m in the first half of 2026.
Depreciation run-rate and the fleet’s age. Each class at 30 June 2026 over its disclosed life (software and furniture at the midpoint): $6,334m a year; accumulated depreciation over that, 0.93 years.
Cost on the books when a contract ends. One less the five-year weighted-average contract over the six-year life: 16.7%.
Debt by facility, and its rate. The eighteen lines of the 10-Q’s debt note add to the $35,551m filed; weighted by the rates it states, 8.4%. Delayed-draw loans $13,643m, notes $16,617m.
Backlog per dollar of debt. RPO over debt principal: 2.92x at 30 June 2026, 2.81x at 31 December 2025, before the cost of delivering it and before interest.

Assumed: the forecast Assumption

Judgements of this page, in three cases, with the reason for each. None is the company’s guidance.

Assumption	Base	Downside	Upside
Active power at the year end, FY2026E to FY2030E (MW)Filed: 850 MW at the end of 2025, about 1.5 GW active and 3.7 GW contracted at 30 June 2026. The base case reaches the contracted figure; the upside assumes new sites.	2,300, 3,000, 3,500, 3,700, 3,700	2,000, 2,500, 2,800, 3,000, 3,000	2,600, 3,500, 4,300, 4,900, 5,300
Revenue per average active MW, FY2026E to FY2030E ($m a year)Derived: $8.91m in 2024, $8.48m in 2025, $7.92m in the first half of 2026. An upper bound that drifts with GPU generations and contract terms.	7.8 falling to 7.4	7.4 falling to 5.8	8.0 throughout
Lease cost per MW; power price in FY2026ELease cost per MW derived at $1.78m (2025) and $1.99m (first half of 2026). Power cost, utilisation and PUE are not disclosed; the price grows 2.5% a year.	$2.0m; $75 per MWh	$2.2m; $90 per MWh	$1.9m; $65 per MWh
Staff, software and the rest, % of revenue, FY2026E to FY2030EOther running costs, power in them, were 32.1% of revenue in 2025 and 24.4% in the first half of 2026; stock-based pay is inside them.	15% to 11%	16% to 15%	14% to 9%
Capital spending per MW addedDerived: $30.4m placed in service per MW added in 2025, $24.8m in the first half of 2026, $27.1m in service per active MW at 30 June 2026.	$27m	$30m	$25m
Book-to-bill, FY2026E to FY2030EDerived: 3.8x in 2024, 10.1x in 2025, 10.4x in the first half of 2026, as the largest contracts were signed.	1.5x falling to 0.9x	0.8x falling to 0.5x	2.0x falling to 1.1x
Backlog never delivered; cash margin on contracted revenueRPO is already net of the credits and delays the company expects. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 64%, 60% and 57% (2024, 2025, first half of 2026).	None; 55%	10%; 45%	None; 60%
Interest rate on debtDerived: a weighted effective rate of 8.4% at 30 June 2026 and contractual interest of 7.5% a year in the first half of 2026.	8.5%	9.5%	8.0%
In every case: utilisation, PUE, stock-based pay, useful livesUtilisation and PUE are not disclosed. Stock-based pay was 12.3% of revenue in 2025 with the IPO awards and 6.8% in the first half of 2026. The lives are the filed ones.	75%, 1.3, 6% of revenue, six years for technology equipment	Same	Same
In every case: funding and working capitalThe facilities lend a share of the GPU servers’ cost that is not disclosed. Deferred revenue was 9.3% of RPO at 30 June 2026. Tax losses and a full valuation allowance keep tax low.	75% of capital spending borrowed over five years; $3,000m minimum cash; receivables 25% of revenue; deferred revenue 9% of RPO; tax 10%	Same	Same

Filings

Every reported figure comes from one of these.

k25FilingForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 2 March 2026
q226FilingForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 12 August 2026
q126FilingForm 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 8 May 2026
p424FilingProspectus (Form 424B4) under the Form S-1 registration statement for the initial public offering · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 31 March 2025
r425FilingForm 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 26 February 2026
r226FilingForm 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second quarter 2026 results · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 11 August 2026
k0810FilingForm 8-K: the $2.6bn DDTL 5.5 delayed-draw term loan facility · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 10 August 2026
k0922FilingForm 8-K: $4.2bn of 2.875% convertible senior notes due 2033 · CoreWeave, Inc., filed with the SEC, 22 September 2026
xbrlDataXBRL company facts, CIK 0001769628 · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 12 August 2026
edgarDataCoreWeave, Inc. filings on EDGAR · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 22 September 2026

What to keep in mind

Where the filings’ definitions bend, and what the model leaves out.

Active and contracted power, data centres and GPUs are stated as lower bounds or approximations ("more than", "about") and are not XBRL-tagged; revenue and lease cost per megawatt are therefore approximate, and revenue per megawatt is an upper bound.
Power cost, utilisation and PUE are not disclosed. The model assumes them, and its estimate of 2025 power can be held only against the filed rise in utilities spend, not a total.
Depreciation is not disclosed by class. The model depreciates each class over its filed life from the fleet’s average age, which treats the fleet in service at 30 June 2026 as one vintage; data centre equipment uses the twelve-year ceiling although a shorter lease term may govern.
The RPO timing bands are spread evenly by month within each band, the page’s convention; the note gives only the three bands.
The revenue backlog and the commitments the August 2026 release says were added after 30 June are company statements, shown and not used. RPO itself is a disclosure of contracts, not a guarantee of revenue.
Facility-level covenants, collateral, cash sweeps and restricted cash are not modelled; the DSCR shown is company-wide, not any facility’s covenant.
New borrowing is assumed available at the selected rate on a five-year amortisation; the refinancing need is the new money the forecast needs, not a forecast of how it is raised.
Replacement of equipment that reaches the end of its life is not modelled before 2030, and capital is spent in the year capacity enters service.
Interest is on opening debt, as cash, with no capitalised interest or discount amortisation in forecast years; the September 2026 notes earn no interest in FY2026E.
Leases signed and not yet commenced ($35.5bn at 30 June 2026) enter only through the lease cost per megawatt; lease liabilities are not treated as debt.
Customer concentration is filed by percentage and letter only; how much of the backlog any one customer holds is not disclosed.

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The method behind the case

GPU cloud infrastructure modelModel · a template this one descends from
Project finance modelModel · a template this one descends from
DSCR Sculpting Lab · about 12 min
Covenant Headroom Lab · about 10 min
Depreciation Waterfall Lab · about 10 min
Project Finance Modelling: Cash Flow Waterfalls, DSCR Sizing and the Debt Sculpt Guide · 12 min
Credit and Covenant Modelling: What a Lender Actually Tests Guide · 11 min
Financial Modelling Best Practices: The Conventions That Make a Model Auditable Guide · 11 min

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