Model the business · Nasdaq: ABNB

Airbnb: a marketplace that holds other people’s money

Held until check-in. The key waits in a box beside someone else’s door until the guest arrives, much as the money they paid waits with the platform, held for the host rather than kept.

Guests booked $91.3bn on Airbnb in 2025: it kept $12.2bn as fees, turned $4.6bn into cash and held $7.0bn that was never its own.

By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.

On this subject: the Airbnb, Inc. case.Updated 25 October 2026

Latest filing 6 August 2026 · Information to 25 October 2026

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Gross Booking Value, FY2025AFiling: $91,273.0m; What guests booked, host earnings and taxes in it. Not revenue.
Revenue, FY2025AFiling: $12,241.0m; Airbnb’s own fees: 13.41% of GBV, a derived rate.
Free cash flow less SBC, FY2025ADerived: $3,021.0m; Airbnb’s free cash flow less share pay.
Customer funds held for hosts and guestsFiling: $6,959.0m; Owed to hosts and guests. Never the company’s cash.

How to read the figures

Every figure on this page is a cell in the Airbnb operating model, and each carries one of four tags.

Filing what the company filed, with its tag
Derived arithmetic on filed figures, such as a proxy or a residual
Assumption a judgement of this page, never the company’s
Model what the model computes from the three

The business

Airbnb runs a marketplace for places to stay, and lately for experiences and services. Guests book through it and pay it, at booking, in instalments, or under Reserve Now, Pay Later nearer the stay; Airbnb holds what they pay until check-in, keeps its service fee and pays the host. Substantially all of its revenue comes from stays, booked in about 50 currencies, and North America and EMEA together made 81% of it in 2025.

In 2025 guests booked 533m nights and seats worth $91.3bn, and Airbnb’s revenue, its fees net of incentives and refunds, was $12.2bn. Its costs are payment processing and hosting, customer support and trust and safety, then engineering, marketing and administration, with stock-based compensation inside them.

Three numbers that move together

Gross Booking Value is what guests book, counted at booking and including host earnings, cleaning fees and taxes. Revenue is Airbnb’s fee, recognised at check-in. Cash is the company’s own, and separately the guests’ money it holds for hosts. A March booking for a July stay is March GBV and July revenue, and the cash arrives in March or, under Reserve Now, Pay Later, nearer July. The model never lets one stand in for another.

FY2025, and what kind of number each is
Measure	FY2025	Kind
Gross Booking Value	$91,273m	Reported, a key metric, not revenue
Revenue	$12,241m	Reported
Adjusted EBITDA	$4,297m	Company, non-GAAP
Free cash flow	$4,613m	Company, non-GAAP
Free cash flow less stock-based compensation	$3,021m	Derived
Company cash and short-term investments	$11,014m	Reported, the company’s own
Customer funds held	$6,959m	Reported, owed to hosts and guests

What the platform keeps

Revenue over GBV gave a take rate of 13.54%, 13.57% and 13.41% in 2023 to 2025. Airbnb states the rate by quarter in its letters but files none for a year, so the page derives it, and checks its own quarterly figures against the letters: 13.61% for the fourth quarter of 2025 against the stated 13.6%.

A quarter’s rate swings from about 9% in the first quarter (9.18% in 2026) to about 18% in the third (17.89% in 2025), because bookings and stays fall in different quarters; a year’s barely moves.

Cash before revenue

Airbnb collects its fee when a guest pays and records it as unearned fees until the stay: $1,743m at the end of 2025, 1.9% of the year’s GBV. Growth in that balance is cash ahead of revenue, $122m in 2025.

Reserve Now, Pay Later loosens the link. At 30 June 2026 unearned fees were flat on a year earlier while first-half GBV grew 18%, and the 10-Q says the timing among GBV, revenue and cash receipts may become less correlated. The forecast holds unearned fees flat in 2026 for that reason.

Money that is not Airbnb’s

At the end of 2025 Airbnb held $6,959m for hosts and guests, matched by an equal amount owed to them, and the balance is seasonal: $12,224m at 30 June 2026. Its own liquidity was $11,014m of cash and short-term investments. The cash flow statement’s closing cash of $13,486m counts the customers’ cash with the company’s, which is the trap.

The interest on the customers’ money sits inside the $705m of interest income, unsplit, and Airbnb’s free cash flow includes it. The forecast carries it at an assumed share so its free cash flow stays comparable, and the valuation sets it aside and shows it as a memo of $6.30 a share.

Profit, read back to the filings

Adjusted EBITDA of $4,297m rebuilds exactly from net income, tax, interest, D&A, $1,592m of stock-based compensation and the tax-settlement lines; the add-backs are worth $1,662m. Free cash flow of $4,613m is operating cash flow less $33m of capital spending, and $3,021m after stock-based compensation.

Net income of $4,792m in 2023 included a $2,897m one-time tax benefit, and 2025’s $2,511m carried a $213m one-time charge. Without both, the three years earned $1,895m, $2,648m and $2,724m. Cash tax ran well below book tax: $232m paid in 2025 against $626m charged.

The forecast and what it is worth

The model keeps three kinds of number on three sheets. Reported holds only what Airbnb filed, each row with its document and tag or the statement that it is untagged. Derived holds arithmetic on Reported and nothing else: the take rates, GBV per night, the rebuilt non-GAAP measures, company money apart from customer money. Forecast holds the assumptions in three cases, every row an editorial judgement of this page and none of it Airbnb’s guidance, which is not used.

FY2026E starts from the filed first half; only the second half is assumed. In the base case GBV reaches $152.8bn and revenue $20.5bn by FY2030E. Discounted at 9% with 3% growth, stock-based compensation as a cost, and customer funds, their interest and the lease liability (whose cost is already in the cash flows) left out, the forecast implies $121.11 a share; the downside $75.13 and the upside $151.02. That is what the inputs imply, not a target, a fair value or a recommendation, and the page does not compare it with the market.

The base case, filed to FY2025A and forecast to FY2030E

Revenue
Adjusted EBITDA (the company’s measure)
Free cash flow less SBC (this page’s measure)
Forecast years: lighter bars, dashed lines

Read as a table

	FY2023A (filed)	FY2024A (filed)	FY2025A (filed)	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$9,917m	$11,102m	$12,241m	$14,121m	$15,714m	$17,325m	$18,922m	$20,471m
Adjusted EBITDA (the company’s measure)	$3,653m	$4,041m	$4,297m	$4,996m	$5,692m	$6,421m	$7,173m	$7,932m
Free cash flow less SBC (this page’s measure)	$2,717m	$3,077m	$3,021m	$3,331m	$3,950m	$4,376m	$4,803m	$5,221m

Change the case or an assumption in Explore; the filed years never move.

CaseBase caseLoading the formulas for your account.

Nights and seats booked

Nights and Seats Booked, the bookings Airbnb counts in units, filed to FY2025A and forecast after it, with FY2026E starting from the filed first half.

Nights and Seats Booked (m, left axis)
Growth on the year before (right axis)
Forecast years: lighter bars, dashed lines

Read as a table

	FY2023A (filed)	FY2024A (filed)	FY2025A (filed)	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Nights and Seats Booked (m, left axis)	448m	492m	533m	584m	630.8m	674.9m	715.4m	751.2m
Growth on the year before (right axis)	n.a.	9.8%	8.3%	9.6%	8.0%	7.0%	6.0%	5.0%

Filed: Nights and Seats Booked to FY2025A and for the first half of 2026, called Nights and Experiences Booked before the third quarter of 2025.
Assumption: growth in the second half of 2026 and in each year from FY2027E, per case.
Model: nights in forecast years, in the selected case.

Nights and Seats Booked, FY2025AFiling: 533.0m; Net of cancellations, counted when booked.
Nights growth, first half of 2026Derived: 10.1%; 305m on 277m, both filed.
Nights, FY2026EModel: 584.04m; The filed first half plus an assumed second half.
Nights, FY2030EModel: 751.18m; The selected case.

Nights and Seats Booked by region of the listing (m), filed

Nights and Seats Booked by region of the listing (m), filed
Region	FY2023A	FY2024A	FY2025A
North America	146	154	158
Europe, the Middle East and Africa	187	201	215
Latin America	64	76	90
Asia Pacific	51	61	70

CaseBase caseLoading the formulas for your account.

Step 1 of 6

Bookings: nights times the price of a night

By the end of this step: build Gross Booking Value from nights and the price of a night, start 2026 from the filed first half, and keep it apart from revenue.

Airbnb files Nights and Seats Booked and Gross Booking Value in Item 7 of its 10-K as key business metrics, untagged: 533m nights and $91,273m in 2025. GBV over nights gives $171.24 a night, a derived figure, because Airbnb files no annual price per night and rounds nights to the million.

GBV is what guests booked, counted when they book and net of cancellations, with host earnings, cleaning fees and taxes in it. It is not revenue, and nothing on the Reported sheet treats it as such: the four regions’ GBV must add to the total, and the Checks sheet holds that sum for every filed year.

The forecast starts FY2026E from the first half of 2026 as filed in the 10-Q, 305m nights and $56,434m of GBV, and adds a second half grown from 2025’s at the case’s assumed rates. From FY2027E, GBV is nights times the price of a night, each grown at a rate that is a judgement of this page.

Gross Booking Value and the price of a night

Open in Explore

Gross Booking Value: what guests booked, not revenue ($m, left axis)
GBV per night booked, derived ($ a night, right axis)
Forecast years: lighter bars, dashed lines

Read as a table

	FY2023A (filed)	FY2024A (filed)	FY2025A (filed)	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Gross Booking Value: what guests booked, not revenue ($m, left axis)	$73,252m	$81,784m	$91,273m	$105,531m	$117,393m	$129,379m	$141,256m	$152,768m
GBV per night booked, derived ($ a night, right axis)	$163.51	$166.23	$171.24	$180.69	$186.11	$191.70	$197.45	$203.37

GBV per night, FY2025ADerived: $171.24; GBV over nights booked. Airbnb files no annual figure, and nights are whole millions, so it is approximate.
GBV per night growth, first half of 2026Derived: 6.9%; In reported dollars, so currency is in it.
GBV, FY2026EModel: $105,531.3m; Bookings, not revenue.
GBV, FY2030EModel: $152,768.2m; The selected case.

Reported: what the filings say Filing

Each figure with its period, its XBRL tag where it has one, and the filing it comes from. No guidance, estimate or press report is a model input.

BookingsFY2025: 533m Nights and Seats Booked and $91,273m of Gross Booking Value, from 492m and $81,784m: key business metrics, not revenue [fy25]
RevenueFY2025: $12,241m, from $11,102m; North America $5,196m, EMEA $4,729m, Latin America $1,160m, Asia Pacific $1,156mus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax [fy25, xbrl]
Costs and operating incomeFY2025: Cost of revenue $2,086m, operations and support $1,327m, product development $2,354m, sales and marketing $2,588m, G&A $1,342m; income from operations $2,544mus-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss [fy25, xbrl]
Interest incomeFY2025: $705m, earned on the company’s cash and on customer funds alike, and not split between themus-gaap:InvestmentIncomeNonoperating [fy25, xbrl]
Net income and taxFY2025 and FY2023: $2,511m after a $213m one-time charge against the CAMT credit; diluted EPS $4.03. FY2023’s $4,792m included a $2,897m release of the valuation allowance. Cash paid for income taxes $232m against a $626m chargeus-gaap:NetIncomeLoss [fy25, fy23, xbrl]
Stock-based compensationFY2025: $1,592m, of which $1,017m in product developmentus-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation [fy25, xbrl]
Adjusted EBITDAFY2025: $4,297m (non-GAAP), reconciled from net income; FY2024 $4,041m and FY2023 $3,653m [fy25, fy24]
Cash flowFY2025: Operating cash flow $4,646m, including a $122m rise in unearned fees; purchases of property and equipment $33m; free cash flow $4,613m (non-GAAP)us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [fy25, xbrl]
The company’s cash31 December 2025: Cash and cash equivalents $6,560m and short-term investments $4,454m, $11,014m in allus-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue [fy25, xbrl]
Customer funds31 December 2025: Funds receivable and amounts held on behalf of customers $6,959m, with funds payable to customers of the same amount; $12,224m at 30 June 2026us-gaap:FundsHeldForClients [fy25, q226, xbrl]
Unearned fees31 December 2025: $1,743m at 31 December 2025; $2,831m at 30 June 2026 against $2,857m a year earlierus-gaap:DeferredRevenueCurrent [fy25, q226, l226]
Debt and leases31 December 2025: 0% convertible notes of $2,000m, repaid at maturity in March 2026 and replaced by $2,500m of senior notes; operating lease liabilities $272m [fy25, notes]
SharesFY2025: 602m shares outstanding at the year end; $3,789m spent on repurchasing 29.7m shares in the yearus-gaap:CommonStockSharesOutstanding [fy25, xbrl]
The take rate, as Airbnb states itQ4 2025 to Q2 2026: 13.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, 9.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 13.2% in the second [l425, l126, l226]
The first half of 2026H1 2026: 305m nights, $56,434m of GBV and $6,286m of revenue, against 277m, $47,962m and $5,368m a year earlier [q226]
The third quarter of 2025Q3 2025: Revenue $4,095m on GBV of $22,892m [q325]

Derived: by arithmetic Derived

Each is computed from the reported figures and nothing else. The method is the row on the Derived sheet.

The take rate. Revenue over GBV: 13.54%, 13.57% and 13.41% for 2023 to 2025. Airbnb states the rate by quarter and files none for a year.
A quarter’s take rate, against the letter. The fourth quarter of 2025: $2,778m of revenue over $20,418m of GBV (the full year less nine months), 13.61%, against the 13.6% the letter states.
GBV per night. $91,273m over 533m nights: $171.24 in 2025, from $166.23. Approximate, because nights are filed in whole millions.
Take rate before incentives. Revenue plus the $484m of incentives and refunds netted from it, over GBV: 13.94%.
What GBV carried beyond Airbnb’s revenue. GBV less revenue less incentives: $78,548m in 2025. Mostly host earnings, cleaning fees and taxes, but a residual, so it also carries fees on stays not yet taken and cancellations of earlier bookings.
Unearned fees against bookings. Unearned fees at the year end over the year’s GBV: 1.91% in 2025; the change, $122m, was 1.0% of revenue.
Company liquidity. Cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments: $11,014m, the 10-K’s own measure of liquidity.
Customer funds. Funds receivable and amounts held on behalf of customers, $6,959m, equal to the amount payable to customers in every year: 7.6% of GBV, and never the company’s.
Customer funds in the interest-earning balance. 41.7% of the average of company cash and customer funds over the five quarter ends of 2025, against 38.7% at the year end. The basis of the forecast’s 40% share of interest income.
Adjusted EBITDA rebuilt. Net income plus tax and other expense, less interest income, plus D&A, stock-based compensation and the acquisition, tax-settlement and IPO-tax lines: $4,297m, Airbnb’s figure.
What the add-backs are worth. Adjusted EBITDA less EBITDA after stock-based compensation (operating income plus D&A, $2,635m): $1,662m.
Free cash flow less stock-based compensation. Free cash flow of $4,613m less $1,592m of stock-based compensation: $3,021m.
Net income without the two tax items. Net income less the 2023 release plus the 2025 allowance: $1,895m, $2,648m and $2,724m for 2023 to 2025.
Cash tax rate. Cash paid for income taxes over income before tax: 7.4% in 2025, after 6.3% and 10.5%.

Assumed: the forecast Assumption

Judgements of this page, in three cases, with the reason for each. None is the company’s guidance.

Assumption	Base	Downside	Upside
Second half of 2026, on the second half of 2025: nights, GBV per night, revenueThe first half is filed: nights up 10.1%, GBV per night up 6.9% in reported dollars, revenue up 17.1%.	+9%, +4%, +14%	+6%, +2%, +10%	+11%, +5%, +18%
Nights growth, FY2027E to FY2030EFiled: 9.8% in 2024 and 8.3% in 2025.	8% fading to 5%	4% fading to 2%	10% fading to 7%
GBV per night, growth a year from FY2027EFiled: 1.7% and 3.0%; no currency effect is assumed.	3%	1%	4%
Take rate by FY2030EFiled annual range 13.41% to 13.57%. Reserve Now, Pay Later pushes revenue later against GBV; new fees and services could lift the rate, unquantified in the filings.	13.4%	13.0%	13.6%
Unearned feesFlat on a year earlier at 30 June 2026 while GBV grew 17.7%; 1.91% of GBV at the end of 2025.	Flat in FY2026E; 1.7% of GBV by FY2030E	Flat; 1.4%	Flat; 1.9%
Cost ratios by FY2030E: cost of revenue, operations and support, product development, sales and marketing, G&AFY2025A: 17.0%, 10.8%, 19.2%, 21.1% and 11.0%, faded in a straight line over five years.	16.5%, 10.0%, 18.0%, 20.0%, 9.5%	17.5%, 11.0%, 20.0%, 22.5%, 11.0%	16.0%, 9.5%, 17.0%, 19.0%, 9.0%
Stock-based compensation by FY2030E13.0% in 2025, inside the cost lines; the valuation treats it as a cost.	12% of revenue	13.5%	11%
TaxBook 20.5% in 2024, the year without a large one-off; cash paid was 6.3% to 10.5% of income before tax in 2023 to 2025.	Book 18%; cash 10% in FY2026E rising to 18% by FY2030E	Same	Same
Interest on customer fundsNot disclosed. In free cash flow, as in Airbnb’s; left out of the value and shown as a memo.	40% of interest income	Same	Same
Capital and the share countIn 2025 buybacks were 82% of free cash flow; shares outstanding fell 2.9% a year from 2023 to 2025.	D&A 0.75% and capex 0.3% of revenue; 3.5% on company cash; buybacks 80% of free cash flow; shares down 3% a year	Same	Same
Discount rate, terminal growth, exit multipleIllustrative. The sensitivity runs 7% to 11% and 2% to 4%; nothing here is calibrated to the market.	9%, 3%, 14 times EBITDA after SBC	Same	Same

Filings

Every reported figure comes from one of these.

fy25FilingForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 12 February 2026
fy24FilingForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 13 February 2025
fy23FilingForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 16 February 2024
q325FilingForm 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 6 November 2025
q126FilingForm 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 7 May 2026
q226FilingForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 6 August 2026
l425FilingForm 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth quarter and full year 2025 shareholder letter · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 12 February 2026
l126FilingForm 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: first quarter 2026 shareholder letter · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 7 May 2026
l226FilingForm 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second quarter 2026 shareholder letter · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 6 August 2026
notesFilingForm 8-K: senior notes issued and the 2026 convertible notes repaid · Airbnb, Inc., filed with the SEC, 16 March 2026
xbrlDataXBRL company facts, CIK 0001559720 · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 6 August 2026
edgarDataAirbnb, Inc. filings on EDGAR · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 6 August 2026

What to keep in mind

Where the filings’ definitions bend, and what the model leaves out.

Nights, GBV, GBV per night, the take rate, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, capital spending and stock-based compensation by line are not XBRL-tagged; they are typed from the filings’ text and checked against their own tables.
Annual GBV per night and every take rate are the page’s calculations. Nights are filed in whole millions, so GBV per night is approximate to about 0.4%.
From FY2027E the forecast applies the take rate to the same year’s GBV, which ignores the lag between booking and stay; unearned fees carry the cash side of it.
Interest income is not split between company cash and customer funds. The forecast’s 40% share is an assumption, with equal yields on both, that keeps free cash flow like for like with Airbnb’s; the valuation excludes it and shows its value as a memo.
Interest expense is not shown separately for 2024; 2025’s $43m comes from the quarters in the second-quarter 2026 letter. From 2026 it is a line of its own.
The offset to the 2025 CAMT allowance is described as $60m in the letter and $105m in the 10-K; neither is adjusted for.
The cash tax rate is an assumption rising to the book rate by FY2030E; the filings give three years of cash paid and the deferred tax asset, not a schedule.
The senior notes of March 2026 come after the valuation date and are not deducted; the convertible notes they replaced are. Operating lease liabilities are not deducted, because under US GAAP their cost is already in operating cash flow.
Revenue by stays, experiences and services, by host and guest fee, cancellation rates, lead times and quarterly regional bookings are not disclosed.
Currency is not modelled separately; reported growth in GBV per night in 2026 is flattered by it.
The share count falls at an assumed net rate; no repurchase price is assumed. Diluted shares at the year end are shares outstanding plus the year’s dilutive awards, and Class H shares are excluded.

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