Journey · 10 steps · 10 sources
Most investing mistakes are reasoning mistakes made under pressure. This path separates the price from the value and the decision from the outcome, names the two biases that cost the most, and ends with the habits that let a person learn from a bad year rather than explain it away.
Decide what a business is worth before looking at the price, then act only when the price is far enough below.
BookThe Intelligent Investor· Benjamin Graham
Judge a decision by what was knowable when it was made, and keep the outcome in a separate column.
BookThinking in Bets· Annie Duke
Before estimating, ask what number is anchoring you and what the base rate is for cases like this.
BookThinking, Fast and Slow· Daniel Kahneman
Ask how many people ran the same method and are not in the sample before treating a record as evidence of skill.
BookHow I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market· Nicolas Darvas
Results come from a few outcomes, so the job is to survive long enough to be there when they arrive.
BookThe Psychology of Money· Morgan Housel
Look for situations where the range of outcomes is wide but the chance of permanent loss is small, because the market prices both as risk.
BookThe Dhandho Investor· Mohnish Pabrai
Duration beats brilliance in compounding; arrange your life and portfolio so you are never forced to stop.
DocumentaryBecoming Warren Buffett· 2017
Ask what would make this fail and who is paid for what before asking anything else.
BookPoor Charlie's Almanack· Charles T. Munger
Write the thesis with its test attached: the variant view, the evidence, and the event that would confirm or refute it.
LetterGreenhaven Road Capital's Q2 2026 letter, on changing how the portfolio is built· Scott Miller
Separate a bad year into your errors and the market's mood, name the errors specifically, and say whether the method changes.
LetterGiverny Capital's 2025 annual letter, on a year of underperformance· François Rochon