13-week cash flow model
Weekly receipts, disbursements, revolver, liquidity. Forecast a stressed company’s liquidity week by week, size the revolver inside its borrowing base, and say in which week the covenant breaks and how much new money would keep it whole.
By Surojit Chakraverti, founder of L3VLUP and an investor running a long-short healthcare and technology equities strategy.
On this subject: 13-week cash flow model.Updated 30 September 2026
Who builds it, and for whatThe document a stressed company lives by and the first thing a restructuring adviser, a lender’s adviser or a distressed investor asks for. It answers the only question that matters in the weeks before a default: on which Friday does cash plus availability fall below what the lenders require, and by how much. Built and re-forecast weekly by the company’s finance team with its advisers, and read line by line by every creditor at the table.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Assumptions | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | Blue cells only. $ millions, thirteen weeks. The company is invented; the calendar is the ordinary one. | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | Week | Unit | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | |
| 5 | Opening position | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | Cash at the start of week 1 | $m | 5.0 | |||||||||||||
| 7 | Revolver drawn at the start of week 1 | $m | 10.0 | |||||||||||||
| 8 | Trade receivables at the start of week 1 | $m | 9.5 | |||||||||||||
| 9 | Inventory (held flat over the forecast) | $m | 12.0 | |||||||||||||
| 11 | Receipts | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | Sales invoiced in the week | $m | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | |
| 13 | Collected in the week of invoice | % | 10.0% | |||||||||||||
| 14 | Collected one week later | % | 30.0% | |||||||||||||
| 15 | Collected two weeks later | % | 40.0% | |||||||||||||
| 16 | Collected three weeks later | % | 20.0% | |||||||||||||
| 17 | Collections from the opening receivables | $m | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | |||||||||||
| 18 | Collections haircut, the downside case (0 = base) | % | 0.0% | |||||||||||||
| 20 | Disbursements | |||||||||||||||
| 21 | Purchases, % of sales | % | 55.0% | |||||||||||||
| 22 | Vendor terms: paid two weeks after purchase; share paid on delivery | % | 25.0% | |||||||||||||
| 23 | Utilities, freight and other weekly operating costs | $m | 0.4 | |||||||||||||
| 24 | Payroll (fortnightly) | $m | - | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | - | |
| 25 | Rent (monthly) | $m | 0.9 | - | - | - | 0.9 | - | - | - | 0.9 | - | - | - | 0.9 | |
| 26 | Interest and fees (monthly) | $m | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | |
| 27 | Taxes | $m | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | - | - | - | - | |
| 28 | Maintenance capex | $m | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| 29 | Restructuring professional fees | $m | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| 30 | One-off disbursements | $m | - | - | 0.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.8 | - | - | |
| 32 | The revolver and the covenant | |||||||||||||||
| 33 | Revolver commitment | $m | 20.0 | |||||||||||||
| 34 | Advance rate on eligible receivables | % | 85.0% | |||||||||||||
| 35 | Receivables eligible (inside 90 days, not disputed) | % | 90.0% | |||||||||||||
| 36 | Advance rate on inventory | % | 50.0% | |||||||||||||
| 37 | Minimum operating cash balance | $m | 3.0 | |||||||||||||
| 38 | Minimum liquidity covenant: cash plus availability | $m | 3.0 |
Click any cell. The inspector names the line, the schedule it belongs to and what kind of cell it is; blue on cream is an input, black a calculation, green a value from another sheet. Scroll sideways to see every year.
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13-week cash flow model: the workbook
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What the base case says
- Net operating cash flow, 13 weeks
- $-5.6m
- Minimum liquidity
- $3.3m
- Week of minimum liquidity
- 12
- Peak revolver drawn
- $13.9m
- Minimum covenant headroom
- $0.3m
- Weeks in breach
- 0
Read from the workbook as served, every input at its default. Periods: W1, W2, W3, W4, W5, W6, W7, W8, W9, W10, W11, W12, W13. The figures are invented and move with whatever you type in.
What this model is
A weekly liquidity forecast for a stressed company: receipts from a collections curve on the sales forecast and the opening receivables, disbursements listed by nature and calendar, and a revolver that draws to hold minimum cash inside a borrowing base.
Every week reports total liquidity (cash plus availability), headroom against the minimum liquidity covenant, and any shortfall that cannot be funded, which is the number a restructuring conversation starts from.
A collections haircut on the Assumptions sheet is the downside case: apply it and watch which week the covenant breaks and how much the revolver has left.
Seats: Investment banking, Private equity, Equity research and hedge funds.
How the schedules connect
Every row in the workbook is tagged with the schedule it belongs to; the inspector above shows the tag when you click a row. These are the schedules this model is made of and where each one lives.
Cash receipts and the collections curve
Sales to cash, week by week
Assumptions, rows 12–18 · Receipts, rows 6–10 · Receipts, rows 13–16
Cash disbursements by calendar
What is paid, and on which Friday
Assumptions, rows 21–30 · Disbursements, rows 6–13 · Disbursements, rows 16–22
Borrowing base and availability
What the revolver will actually lend this week
Assumptions, rows 33–38 · Liquidity, rows 13–17
Liquidity forecast and covenant headroom
Cash, availability, headroom, shortfall
Assumptions, rows 6–9 · Liquidity, rows 6–10 · Liquidity, rows 20–25 · Liquidity, rows 28–34 · Summary, rows 5–13
What you should be able to explain
- Why liquidity is forecast weekly, and what a monthly view hides.
- How a collections curve turns a sales forecast into receipts, and why the receivables roll-forward is the check on it.
- What a borrowing base is, why availability shrinks as receivables age, and what a forced repayment does to cash.
- The difference between cash, availability and liquidity, and which one the covenant tests.
- What a shortfall means: the amount new money, a waiver or a deferral has to supply.
What a reviewer looks for
- Receipts modelled as sales, with no collections lag and no opening book.
- Payroll and rent spread evenly across weeks when they fall on specific Fridays.
- A revolver assumed available to its commitment when the borrowing base is smaller.
- Professional fees left out of a restructuring forecast, which is the one line certain to be paid.
- A covenant tested on month-end cash when the documents test liquidity every week.
Conventions this workbook uses
Stated on the cover sheet too. A model is only as trustworthy as the decisions it tells you it made.
- Periods are weeks and the calendar is explicit: payroll every other week, rent and interest monthly, taxes in week nine. A monthly model hides the week in which cash runs out.
- Receipts follow a four-week collections curve applied to each week’s sales, with the opening receivables collected on their own schedule. The receivables roll-forward ties collections back to the book.
- Vendors are paid two weeks after purchase except the critical share paid on delivery; purchases before the forecast are paid in the first two weeks on the same terms.
- The revolver draws only what holds the minimum cash balance, limited to availability, and repays from cash above the minimum. A borrowing base below the drawn balance forces a repayment.
- Liquidity is cash plus availability. The covenant is tested on it every week; a shortfall is cash below the minimum with nothing left to draw, which is the amount new money must supply.
Build it yourself
The starter workbook
The Liquidity sheet has been cleared: the cash roll, the revolver draws and repayments, closing cash, total liquidity and the covenant test. Build them from the receipts, the disbursements and the borrowing base so that the Summary comes back to life. The Checks sheet tells you when cash rolls in every week and the revolver stays inside its base.
Blanks: Liquidity forecast and covenant headroom. Free with any account. Compare with the worked model when you are done: download above.
The path around this model
Understand it, drill it, read the build, then apply it to a real company.
Read · Guide · 8 min
Restructuring Interview Questions: Fulcrum, Waterfall & Beyond
Read · Guide · 11 min
Credit and Covenant Modelling: What a Lender Actually Tests
Apply · Skill
Model Audit
Find the errors in a financial model before someone senior does.
Vocabulary: 13-Week Cash Flow, Borrowing Base, Liquidity, Covenant, Revolving Credit Facility (Revolver).
Questions about this model
Why thirteen weeks?
A quarter, at the frequency cash actually moves. It is long enough to see the payroll, rent and tax calendar turn over and short enough to forecast receipts customer by customer with some confidence. Beyond it the forecast becomes a budget, which is a different document.
What does the collections haircut represent?
The downside every lender will ask for: customers stretching payment when they hear the company is in trouble, disputes, and the odd bad debt. Apply ten percent and the model shows in which week liquidity breaks and how much the revolver has left, which is the conversation that follows.
Why does the revolver repay when cash is above the minimum?
Because an asset-based revolver is a cash sweep in all but name: excess cash reduces the drawn balance and the interest on it, and the availability comes back when it is needed. The model draws what holds the minimum operating balance and no more, inside the borrowing base, which is how the facility works in practice.
What happens when the borrowing base falls below the drawn balance?
The company must repay the difference, whatever its cash position, which is why a shrinking receivables book is dangerous even when sales are steady. The model forces the repayment and shows the cash it takes.
What does it cost?
Nothing to inspect: the whole workbook is on this page. A free account chooses one worked model to keep, and downloads every starter workbook. L3VLUP Pro ($25/month) downloads the whole library and opens every model’s formulas in the inspector.