Management Projections
Lay out the plan every valuation downstream depends on, and show what a haircut does to it.
Seat
IB · PE
Level
Analyst / Associate
Runtime
~25 min
Output
Projections page: Excel + slide
What this helps you accomplish
Revenue through to unlevered free cash flow by year, with growth, margins, conversion and the compound rate beside each line, plus a sensitivity case driven by a single haircut cell. Every method later in the book sits on these numbers, so the page earns its place by making the growth and margin assumptions impossible to skim past.
What you get
Not a description of an output. The file itself, in the conventions a banker, a PE associate or a hedge fund analyst already reads without being told.
{TICKER}_management-projections.xlsx
Excel workbook
- 1
Assumptions
The haircut applied to the sensitivity case and the conventions the sub-rows are computed on
- 2
Management case ($mm)
Revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, EBIT, net income and capex by year, with growth, margin and conversion sub-rows and a CAGR column
- 3
Management case vs sensitivity case: EBITDA ($mm)
The same years with the haircut applied, so the gap between plan and downside is a formula rather than a second model
- 4
PowerPoint
One slide: the projections table with muted sub-rows, a revenue and EBITDA chart, and the key assumptions in a callout
Where the numbers come from
From the filings: three fiscal years of revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, EBIT, net income and capex, each cited. Every filed figure resolves to its form, period, page, the printed value and a link into the filing on EDGAR. Not from filings: the forecast years, which are extrapolated from the filed trend at the trailing three-year revenue CAGR and titled as an illustrative extrapolation rather than a forecast. Assumptions are listed on the slide’s source line under "Not from filings", so an assumed input is never read as a filed one.
Run it yourself
python3 skills/deal-slides/build.py management-projections --ticker BSXDelegate · Verify · Decide
The core L3VLUP principle: AI output is never automatically correct. Know what to hand off, what to check, and what only you can own.
Delegate
AI is good enough to do this.
- • Pulling three fiscal years of revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, EBIT, net income and capex with a citation on each
- • Computing growth, margins, conversion and the compound rate as live formulas
- • Extrapolating the filed trend where no management case exists, and labelling it
- • Building the branded slide with the chart and the assumptions callout
Verify
AI accelerates you here, but a professional checks the work.
- • Each filed year against the 10-K, including any restated comparative
- • That EBITDA is built the same way here as on every other page in the book
- • That the forecast years are marked as forecast and the actuals as actual
- • That the 2026E EBITDA here is the same 2026E EBITDA the comparables and the discounted cash flow use
Decide
Judgment the human owns. This is the skill.
- • Whether the management case is credible against the company’s own record
- • The haircut, and what it represents
- • Which lines belong on the page and which sub-rows are noise
- • Whether to show the plan, the sensitivity case, or both to this audience
Inputs required
- Company name or ticker
- The management case, if you have it. Without one the page extrapolates the filed trend and labels it as such
- The haircut for the sensitivity case
- Your own numbers where you would rather not use the default
The workflow
- 1
Resolve the company
A ticker or a name pulls three fiscal years of the income statement and capex out of the 10-Ks.
- 2
Separate actual from forecast
Actual years end in A and the extrapolated years in E. The haircut leaves the actuals alone, which is the point of the labelling.
- 3
Replace the extrapolation
An extrapolated trend is a placeholder, not a plan. Put the management case in and note when it was received.
- 4
Test the plan against the record
Compare forecast growth with what the company has actually delivered, and the forecast margin with where it has been. This is the check the rest of the book relies on.
- 5
Set the haircut
One cell drives the sensitivity case. Choose a number you would defend in a committee rather than base minus ten percent.
Run this skill
Any listed company, anywhere. Ticker or name.
Quality checklist
The output isn’t done until every box ticks.
- verify reports zero errors: change a revenue figure or the haircut and growth, margins, CAGR and the sensitivity case all move
- Units are on the table header, percentages on the sub-rows, and the subtitle names the fiscal year end
- The CAGR column names its start and end year
- The source says when the projections were received and which years are actual
- Every list has the same length as the year labels, and the actual years end in A so the haircut leaves them alone