Sensitivity Analysis
Show how the value moves with the two assumptions that carry it.
Seat
IB · PE
Level
Analyst
Runtime
~15 min
Output
Sensitivity page: Excel + slide
What this helps you accomplish
A two-way grid of value per share and implied premium, a multiple down the rows against a metric or a percentage change to it across the columns, with the base case shaded and the cells clearing the offer in bold. Read the shape rather than the cells: how many combinations clear the offer, and whether the base case sits in the middle of the grid or at a flattering corner.
What you get
Not a description of an output. The file itself, in the conventions a banker, a PE associate or a hedge fund analyst already reads without being told.
{TICKER}_sensitivity.xlsx
Excel workbook
- 1
Base case
Shares, net debt, the current price, the offer, the base multiple and the metric the grid flexes
- 2
Implied value per share ($)
The grid itself, every cell referencing its own row multiple and column metric so it moves when any input moves
- 3
Implied premium to the current price
The same grid expressed as a premium, which is the version a board reads first
- 4
PowerPoint
One slide: both grids with the base case shaded and the cells above the offer in bold, plus a KPI rail
Where the numbers come from
From the filings: shares, net debt and trailing EBITDA. Every filed figure resolves to its form, period, page, the printed value and a link into the filing on EDGAR. Not from filings: the base multiple, which is 10.0x unless a price is supplied and the market-implied multiple is used instead, and the range stepped either side of it. Assumptions are listed on the slide’s source line under "Not from filings", so an assumed input is never read as a filed one.
Run it yourself
python3 skills/deal-slides/build.py sensitivity --ticker BSX --offer 60Delegate · Verify · Decide
The core L3VLUP principle: AI output is never automatically correct. Know what to hand off, what to check, and what only you can own.
Delegate
AI is good enough to do this.
- • Pulling shares, net debt and trailing EBITDA with a citation on each
- • Building both grids so each cell references its own row and column header
- • Counting the cells that clear the offer
- • Building the branded slide with the shading and the bold cells
Verify
AI accelerates you here, but a professional checks the work.
- • That the base-case cell reproduces the value the rest of the book uses
- • That the metric on the columns names its period rather than sitting unlabelled
- • That the step either side of the base is a range a reader would recognise as plausible
- • That the count of cells above the offer matches the workbook’s own count
Decide
Judgment the human owns. This is the skill.
- • Which two assumptions the grid flexes
- • The base multiple, and whether to use the market-implied one instead
- • Whether the columns show absolute levels or a percentage change from base
- • What the shape of the grid says about the offer, and whether to say it out loud
Inputs required
- Company name or ticker
- The offer per share
- The base multiple and the metric the grid flexes, if not trailing EBITDA at 10.0x
- Your own numbers where you would rather not use the default
The workflow
- 1
Resolve the company
A ticker or a name pulls shares, net debt and trailing EBITDA, each cited.
- 2
Choose the two axes
The grid is only useful if both axes are assumptions a reader would argue with. A multiple against a metric they already accept is a decorative page.
- 3
Centre the base case
The base sits in the middle of the grid, not at a corner. A grid centred to flatter the offer is the oldest trick on the page.
- 4
Build and count
How many cells clear the offer, on the workbook’s own count rather than by eye.
- 5
Label the periods
Every multiple and metric names the period it refers to: trailing, forward, or a specific forecast year.
Run this skill
Any listed company, anywhere. Ticker or name.
Quality checklist
The output isn’t done until every box ticks.
- verify reports zero errors and every derived cell is a formula on blue inputs
- Units are on every table header and the subtitle names the pricing date
- The base case is inside the grid rather than at a corner, and it is the shaded cell
- The column mode, absolute levels or percentage change from base, is stated in the subtitle
- The number of cells clearing the offer is in the notes and agrees with the workbook’s count
- Every multiple and metric label names its period