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Practical lessons and heuristics

Practical rules and heuristics, stated so they can be used tomorrow.

  • Post-mortemFounders and companiesDocumentary

    A board that accepts a narrative has stopped doing diligence

    A compelling story is a claim to test, and the test for a technology is watching it work.

    Venture and growth diligence, and any investment where the case rests on a founder's account of something that cannot yet be seen.

    From The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley · 2019

  • TechniqueMarketsBook

    A commodity index does not return what the spot price did

    Returns on a rolled futures position include the roll, so the shape of the curve matters as much as where spot goes.

    Any question on commodity exposure, futures-based products or the difference between spot and investable returns.

    From The Little Book of Commodity Investing · John Stephenson

  • FrameworkInvestingBook

    A handful of outcomes carries a portfolio, and a career

    Results come from a few outcomes, so the job is to survive long enough to be there when they arrive.

    Position sizing, venture portfolio construction, and any moment of frustration that most of your effort seems to produce nothing.

    From The Psychology of Money · Morgan Housel

  • Post-mortemInvestingLetter located

    A bad year separated into its causes: which mistakes were mine and which were the market

    Separate a bad year into your errors and the market's mood, name the errors specifically, and say whether the method changes.

    Reviewing your own record, reading any manager's bad year, and the interview question about a mistake.

    From Giverny Capital's 2025 annual letter, on a year of underperformance · François Rochon

  • FrameworkPsychology and behaviourBook

    Anchoring and base rate neglect are the two biases that cost money

    Before estimating, ask what number is anchoring you and what the base rate is for cases like this.

    Valuation, deal pricing, forecasting, and the behavioural finance questions in hedge fund and asset management interviews.

    From Thinking, Fast and Slow · Daniel Kahneman

  • LessonInvestingDocumentary

    Compounding needs an uninterrupted run more than it needs a good year

    Duration beats brilliance in compounding; arrange your life and portfolio so you are never forced to stop.

    Thinking about personal finance, about a long career, or about why survival matters more than any single year's return.

    From Becoming Warren Buffett · 2017

  • LessonIncentivesBook

    Follow the fee before you follow the advice

    Before weighing advice, work out how the adviser is paid and what that pays them to say.

    Evaluating any product, fund or recommendation, and in interviews about asset management economics.

    From Where Are the Customers' Yachts? · Fred Schwed Jr.

  • Case studyAccountingBook

    Growth consumes cash, and a profitable company can still run out

    Profit is not cash, and growth widens the gap; model the cash a business needs to grow before admiring its sales.

    Any three-statement question, any growth company's cash flow, and any founder conversation about runway.

    From Shoe Dog · Phil Knight

  • FrameworkGrowth and business modelsBook

    Network effects start in one small market, never across the whole one

    Judge a network by whether its first small market is dense and self-sustaining, not by the size of the market it aims at.

    Early-stage diligence, growth strategy questions, and any marketplace that reports total users rather than density.

    From The Cold Start Problem · Andrew Chen

  • Career lessonCareersBook

    Networking works when you are useful before you are needy

    Lead with something useful to the other person; a request with nothing attached is ignored by anyone worth reaching.

    Cold outreach, coffee chats, and off-cycle recruiting where there is no process to carry you.

    From Never Eat Alone · Keith Ferrazzi

  • LessonFraud and forensicsSeries

    Returns too smooth to be real are themselves the evidence

    A track record with no bad months is a question, not a credential.

    Due diligence on any manager, strategy or product that reports steady positive returns.

    From Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street · 2023

  • Post-mortemFraud and forensicsBook

    Secrecy presented as protecting the technology is the warning sign

    Protecting a secret and refusing to demonstrate a result are different things; a company that cannot tell them apart may have no result.

    Technology diligence, and any situation where access to evidence is being refused on grounds of confidentiality.

    From Bad Blood · John Carreyrou

  • FrameworkProductBook

    Shipping is an output. Nobody is paying for outputs

    Measure what changed for the customer, not what was shipped; a team given an outcome behaves differently from one given a list.

    Product interviews at large companies, metrics questions, and any discussion of how a team should be judged.

    From Escaping the Build Trap · Melissa Perri

  • ObservationLeadershipLetter

    The world pulls every company towards typical, and staying distinctive has a price

    Being distinctive is not a state but a cost paid continuously; stop paying it and the drift to typical begins.

    Questions about culture, moats that depend on behaviour rather than assets, and personal career choices.

    From Amazon's 2020 letter to shareowners, Jeff Bezos's last as chief executive · Jeff Bezos

  • LessonMarketsBook

    Traders who agree on nothing else all agree about risk control

    The common factor among people who last is not how they pick trades but how they limit what a wrong one costs.

    Sales and trading, hedge fund and any markets interview that asks how you would manage a position.

    From Market Wizards · Jack D. Schwager