Probability of Technical and Regulatory Success (PTRS)
The chance that a drug in development reaches the market: the product of the probabilities of passing each remaining stage (Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, regulatory approval). Base rates by phase are published and adjusted for the therapeutic area and the data so far. In an rNPV the current stage’s costs are not weighted by it, because they are being spent regardless; everything after the current stage is.
Where Probability of Technical and Regulatory Success (PTRS) comes up
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