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Concepts

Quality of earnings

Whether reported profit is backed by cash, and which adjustments were built to flatter.

4 ideas that carry it

  • FrameworkAccountingDocumentary

    An adjusted metric is an argument about what should not count

    Judge an adjustment by whether an owner of the whole business would also get to ignore the cost.

    Reading any earnings release, pitch deck or S-1 that leads with a non-GAAP measure.

    From WeWork: Or the Making and Breaking of a $47 Billion Unicorn · 2021

  • LessonFraud and forensicsSeries

    Returns too smooth to be real are themselves the evidence

    A track record with no bad months is a question, not a credential.

    Due diligence on any manager, strategy or product that reports steady positive returns.

    From Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street · 2023

  • TechniqueAccountingBook

    The warning was usually in a footnote, years early

    Read the notes before the numbers; the disclosure that matters is usually there and usually ignored.

    Any model review, any quality of earnings exercise, and any short thesis.

    From The Signs Were There · Tim Steer