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Atlas

Observations and memorable lines

Things noticed that change how you read the next one.

  • ObservationInvestingBook

    A signal that works is small, short-lived and expensive to find

    Expect an edge to be small, to fade, and to cost more to find than to run; a large, durable, obvious one is probably not an edge.

    Quant interviews, and any conversation about whether a published strategy can still work.

    From The Man Who Solved the Market · Gregory Zuckerman

  • Case studyBankingResearch

    Deposit betas kept rising after March 2023, but the run did not change their path

    The 2023 runs redistributed deposits towards the largest banks and exposed a pricing gap that already existed; they did not reprice the system.

    Any question about the 2023 banking crisis, deposit flight or the funding advantage of the largest banks.

    From Deposits and the March 2023 Banking Crisis–A Retrospective · Stephan Luck and Matthew Plosser, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Liberty Street Economics)

  • LessonIncentivesBook

    Follow the fee before you follow the advice

    Before weighing advice, work out how the adviser is paid and what that pays them to say.

    Evaluating any product, fund or recommendation, and in interviews about asset management economics.

    From Where Are the Customers' Yachts? · Fred Schwed Jr.

  • Decision principleInvestingLetter located

    When investing, pessimism is your friend and euphoria the enemy

    The price of risk tracks the mood, so the useful time to buy is when the mood is worst, and the dangerous time is when it is best.

    Any question about market timing, contrarian investing or what to do in a crisis.

    From Berkshire Hathaway's 2008 letter to shareholders · Warren Buffett

  • ObservationCreditResearch

    Private credit lends larger, with thinner coverage and lower recoveries

    Private credit's borrowers are more levered and its recoveries lower than the syndicated market's, and the capital waiting to be deployed is what pressures underwriting.

    Credit fund, leveraged finance and private equity interviews, and any discussion of where the risks in private credit sit.

    From Private Credit: Characteristics and Risks · Fang Cai and Sharjil Haque, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes)

  • ObservationLeadershipLetter

    The world pulls every company towards typical, and staying distinctive has a price

    Being distinctive is not a state but a cost paid continuously; stop paying it and the drift to typical begins.

    Questions about culture, moats that depend on behaviour rather than assets, and personal career choices.

    From Amazon's 2020 letter to shareowners, Jeff Bezos's last as chief executive · Jeff Bezos

  • LessonMarketsBook

    Traders who agree on nothing else all agree about risk control

    The common factor among people who last is not how they pick trades but how they limit what a wrong one costs.

    Sales and trading, hedge fund and any markets interview that asks how you would manage a position.

    From Market Wizards · Jack D. Schwager

  • Company insightArtificial intelligenceVideo located

    What banks actually deploy is narrower and more governed than the consumer conversation

    Institutional AI is scoped, governed and data-limited; expect to work inside those limits and to be able to explain them.

    Questions about AI in banking, technology roles inside financial firms, and any claim about what AI is doing to the industry.

    From Goldman CIO Marco Argenti on the Warp-Speed Improvements in AI · Bloomberg Odd Lots