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Concepts

Survivorship

One person’s record is a story about the people who did not make it until proven otherwise.

3 ideas that carry it

  • FrameworkInvestingBook

    A handful of outcomes carries a portfolio, and a career

    Results come from a few outcomes, so the job is to survive long enough to be there when they arrive.

    Position sizing, venture portfolio construction, and any moment of frustration that most of your effort seems to produce nothing.

    From The Psychology of Money · Morgan Housel

  • Decision principleInvestingBook

    One person's record is a story about survivorship until proven otherwise

    Ask how many people ran the same method and are not in the sample before treating a record as evidence of skill.

    Reading any success memoir, evaluating a manager's record, or presenting your own.

    From How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market · Nicolas Darvas

  • LessonMarketsBook

    Traders who agree on nothing else all agree about risk control

    The common factor among people who last is not how they pick trades but how they limit what a wrong one costs.

    Sales and trading, hedge fund and any markets interview that asks how you would manage a position.

    From Market Wizards · Jack D. Schwager