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Concepts

Weighting opinions by record

Weight an opinion by the record of the person holding it, not by how loudly it is held.

1 idea that carry it

  • Decision principleDecision-makingBook

    Weight an opinion by the record of the person holding it

    In a disagreement, weight each view by that person's track record on the question, not by their rank or confidence.

    Investment committees, group cases, and any time you are deciding whose forecast to trust.

    From Principles · Ray Dalio